User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Friday January 29, 2016 - 18:16:14 GMT
Global-View.com - www.global-view.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

WEEK AHEAD; Economic Data Analysis

US LABOUR MARKET REMAINS KEY TO FOMC MARCH DECISION

Global PMI weakness could usher in a renewed bout of market volatility
BoE February Inflation Report to downgrade near-term inflation and growth forecasts
US employment report to show job gains easing to post-crisis average

Risk sentiment remains vulnerable. The firming of the recovery in developed market equity prices, which began towards the end of last week, has been boosted further by the surprising policy rate cut by the Bank of Japan. This rally has also extended to oil prices with Brent crude rising from its mid-January low of $26/bbl to over $33, partly on speculation over Russian-OPEC collaboration on supply cuts. However, Chinese equities have continued to slide over the past week amid elevated anxieties about the potential downside impact of financial market gyrations on broader economic activity, and vice versa. Against this backdrop, disappointing news from the upcoming global activity indices for January, in particular the Chinese PMIs and US ISMs (Mon, Weds), could trigger a renewed bout market volatility.

BoE Inflation Report to downgrade near-term growth and inflation forecasts. Recent speeches from BoE Governor Carney and other MPC members, as well as the minutes of the January policy meeting, have emphasised the accumulation of downside risks to domestic activity and inflation since the November Inflation Report (IR). Some of this reflects international developments. The preliminary estimate of Q4 GDP puts growth at a near-trend 0.5% q/q, while annual headline inflation remains close to zero as energy base effects soften against the backdrop of the nearly 40% fall in oil prices since the November IR. But there have also been concerns about the unexpected slowdown in the pace of wage growth despite the continuing robustness of employment and a stronger-than-anticipated dip in headline unemployment. Despite the upward impacts of a 4% weakening in trade-weighted sterling since the November report, further downgrades to projections for GDP growth and inflation over 2016 and 2017 are expected. Nonetheless, concerns about the supply-side capacity of the economy, possibly stemming from a decline in average working hours over the last year, could see November’s expectation of an inflation overshoot at the end of the two-year policy horizon remain intact. This would suggest that the current market forecast that the first increase in the Bank Rate will not take place until 2018 is overdone. Nonetheless, we do not expect Governor Carney to provide a strong steer on the timing at his press conference.

Softer January nonfarm payrolls unlikely to worry FOMC. Not surprisingly, the FOMC statement which accompanied this week’s decision to keep monetary policy unchanged acknowledged the potential downside risks from the weaker external environment. This uncertainty over the impact on the US economy may have underpinned the absence of any guidance on the prospects of a hike in March. However, speeches by the Kansas Fed’s George (Tue) and especially Fed Vice-Chair Fischer (Mon) provide an opportunity for further guidance. As in the run-up to December’s lift-off, the health of the domestic labour market will be a key policy driver. The strong run of monthly gains in payrolls during Q4, which averaged 251k, partly reflected a weather-related boost to construction hiring. The subsequent normalisation of temperatures in January lead us to anticipate a 185k print in Friday’s employment report. However, the FOMC will be reassured by the fact that this is close to the post-crisis average. Despite an easing in pay growth from 2.5% in December to 2.2%, unemployment is expected to fall to 4.9% which would be the lowest reading since February 2008.

Draghi and RBA to hold firm. The initial reading for January euro area annual inflation is forecast to see a second successive monthly rise . While oil prices fell in January, they dropped by even more at the same point last year. That should allow the headline rate to move up to 0.4% (from 0.2%), still well below the ECB’s inflation target. The ‘core’ rate is expected to be unchanged at 0.9%. Such an outturn is unlikely to reduce the odds of the ECB introducing further stimulus measures potentially as early as its next meeting in March. The ECB would have been expecting an even larger pickup in January inflation before the latest oil price fall. It will also be aware that inflation could start to decline once again over the next few months unless the oil price rebounds.

Other central banks may look to ease. ECB President Draghi is expected to reiterate his readiness to counter adverse growth and inflationary pressures in his address to the European parliament (Mon). After 50bp worth of cuts in 2015, the RBA is expected to leave the cash rate at 2.0% on Tuesday. However, it may leave the door open for another cut later in the year.

This document has been prepared by Lloyds Bank plc [and Bank of Scotland plc, trading as Lloyds Bank ("Lloyds Bank"). This document is confidential and must not be distributed, in whole or in part, to any third party without the prior written consent of Lloyds Bank. ] This document has been prepared for information purposes only. This document should be regarded as a marketing communication, it is not intended to be investment research and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements to promote the independence of investment research and should not necessarily be considered objective or unbiased. This document is not independent from Lloyds Bank's proprietary interests, which may conflict with your interests. Lloyds Bank may trade as principal, may have proprietary positions, and/or may make markets in the instruments (or related derivatives) discussed in this document. The author of this document may know the nature of Lloyds Bank's trading positions or strategies in anticipation of this document. Trading personnel may be indirectly compensated in part based on the size and volume of their transactions, but the outcome of any transaction that may result from this document will not have a direct bearing on the compensation of any trading personnel. Lloyds Bank may engage in transactions in a manner inconsistent with the views expressed in this document and Lloyds Bank's salespeople, traders and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or strategies to clients, which may conflict with the opinions expressed in this document.

Any views, opinions or forecast expressed in this document represent the views or opinions of the author and are not intended to be, and should not be viewed as advice or a recommendation. We make no representation and give no advice in respect of legal, regulatory, tax or accounting matters in any applicable jurisdiction. You should make your own independent evaluation, based on your own knowledge and experience and any professional advice which you may have sought, on the applicability and relevance of the information contained in this document.

The material contained in this document has been prepared on the basis of information believed to be reliable and whilst Lloyds Bank has exercised reasonable care in its preparation, no representation or warranty, as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information, express or implied, nor as to the achievement or reasonableness of any projections, targets, estimates, or forecasts, is given and nothing in this document should be relied upon as a promise, representation or warranty as to the future. This document is current at the date of publication and the content is subject to change without notice. Lloyds Bank does not accept any obligation to any recipient to update or correct this information. This document does not constitute or imply an offer or commitment whatsoever on the part of Lloyds bank plc and is not directed toward, nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to anyone in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Lloyds Bank, its directors, officers and employees are not responsible and accept no liability for the impact of any decisions made based upon the information, views, forecasts or opinion expressed.

Lloyds Banking Group plc and its subsidiaries may participate in benchmarks in any one or more of the following capacities; as administrator, submitter or user. Benchmarks may be referenced by Lloyds Banking Group plc for internal purposes or used to reference products, services or transactions which we provide or carry out with you. More information about Lloyds Banking Group plc's participation in benchmarks is set out in the Benchmark Transparency Statement which is available on our website.

[Lloyds Bank is a trading name of Lloyds Bank plc and Bank of Scotland plc, which are both part of Lloyds Banking Group plc. Lloyds Bank plc. Registered Office: 25 Gresham Street, London EC2V 7HN. Registered in England and Wales no. 2065. Bank of Scotland plc. Registered Office: The Mound, Edinburgh EH1 1YZ. Registered in Scotland no. SC327000. Authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority under registration numbers 119278 and 169628 respectively. FCA authorisation can be checked on the Financial Services Register at: www.fca.org.uk]

FCA authorisation can be checked on the Financial Services Register at: www.fca.org.uk

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 21 November 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105