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Monday October 3, 2005 - 10:49:13 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• Tankan disappointment hits JPY and boosts USD in general.
• USD eyeing key levels against majors.
• ISM data features today.

Market Outlook

The USD strengthened early in the Asian session, with the weaker than expected Tankan/strong USD-JPY scenario the main driving factor for most crosses – stops being triggered in many cases e.g. the 1.1950-70 area on EUR-USD. This strength has largely been sustained through the European morning. The USD does appear to be building up a head of steam at the present time and this suggests some upside risk, but we are not entirely convinced that key levels on EUR-USD - 1.1868 (2005 low) and 1.1759 (2004 low) - will break in the short-term. If these levels were to break it would open things up considerably and a fairly rapid move could be seen to the 1.10- 1.12 area. 1.2035 and especially 1.2080-1.2100 are the barriers that need to be overcome to suggest some stabilisation. 90.53- 82 is key resistance on the USD index.

The Tankan survey fell short of market expectations, pushing USD-JPY above the key 113.70 level. The survey was not a complete disaster, with many of the main indices still higher than those seen in June, although there were disappointments. Large manufacturers’ outlook for the December reading were a touch lower than September, revealing perhaps how energy prices are dampening the business outlook. Large company plans for capex were at +9.3% y/y for the year-ending Mar 2006 (mkt had expected +10%) compared to +9.4% in the June survey. Still, this remains well above the +4.5% number seen in the year ending Mar 2005 and the initial plans for 2005/06 of just +1.0% when polled in Mar. Japanese equities closed modestly lower and bond yields were actually a touch higher. After recent hard times for the JPY, the Tankan represented the chance of some good news, so it is another kick in the teeth in many ways. Upside risk is in place on USD-JPY while it stays above 113.50-70. Key levels on the topside are at 114.70/114.88 (May 2004 highs) and the psychological 115.00. We are not currently expecting this level to break.

PMIs in the UK, Eurozone and Switzerland were all stronger than expected, but they made no lasting impression on respective currencies against the USD, although EUR-CHF was weaker for a time.

Day Ahead
The US ISM manufacturing survey will be keenly watched, although whether the market is confident in drawing any firm conclusions from the release (given the possible impact from Katrina) remains to be seen. The NAPM manufacturing number shortly after hurricane Andrew in August 1992 did show a dip below 50.0 for one month, although this should necessarily be used as an indication of what will happen today.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

AU Market holiday
US ISM manu (Sep) 10.00 52.0
JP Monetary base (Sep) y/y 19.00 +1.3%
AU Trade balance (Aug) 21.30 -A$1.3bn

Latest data Actual Consensus*
JP Tankan – large manu (Sep) +19 +21
JP Tankan – large manu (Dec) +18 +22
JP Tankan – large non-manu (Sep) +15 +17
JP Tankan – large non-manu (Dec) +16 +18
CN PMI manu (Sep) 55.1 52.6 last
SE PMI manu (Sep) 55.8 54.1 last
CH PMI manu (Sep) 57.5 54.5
IT PMI manu (Sep) 51.5 50.4
FR PMI manu (Sep) 52.7 52.1
DE PMI manu (Sep) 51.0 49.8
EU PMI manu (Sep) 51.7 50.8
GB PMI manu (Sep) 51.5 50.0
*Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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