Tuesday October 4, 2005 - 00:55:00 GMT
Share This Story
FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 4th October 2005 Price:
Resistance: 113.42 ... 114.59 ... 114.42 ... 115.20
Support....: 113.90 ... 113.67 ... 113.29 ... 112.85
We look for a cap around the 114.35-59 area and for a pullback to 113.29
Price broke above 114.15-24 to extend gains to 114.35 and we feel that may have concluded the move higher - though we should allow for 114.59. With the expectation being for a move lower we are less inclined to a bullish strategy today and only a break above 114.60 would allow a test of the weekly corrective peak at 114.85 and probably the significant weekly pivot resistance around 115.20-40.
With the move higher to 114.35 we feel we are being provided with a good selling opportunity for a larger pullback lower. Stops should be placed above 114.60 with a break below 113.90 being the first sign of weakness which we feel would spur price down to the 113.67 pivotal area and then down to 113.29 which should cause a pullback. Next support is at 112.64-85.
Elliott Wave Commnets:
3rd October 2005
No real change in the analysis though we should consider the risk that Friday's high at 113.67 completed the rally. Thus we suspect that this week could generate a sideways to lower bias and if 113.67 did provide the peak to Wave (iii) then we would target the 111.77 (50%) to 112.22 (38.2%) retracement area in Wave (iv) to allow Wave (v) to develop.
4th October 2005
The 114.37-42 area is implied by a range of Fibonacci relationships across time frames and thus we should be respectful of this area. It does not, however, seem to fit into a Wave (iii) target and that is the only concern we have. However, at 114.42 Wave (c) is equal to 161.8% of Wave (a) and within Wave (c) it possesess quite a few relationships. On the assumption that this area holds therefore, we would expect a 38.2% correction at least which rests at 112.64, itself a pivot support. A 50% retracement in Wave (iv) lies at 112.11, again another pivotal area.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
Disclaimer: Pro Commentary, FX-Strategy, FX-Strategy Pro Charts, and any related products or services, are analytical tools only and are not intended to replace individual research. The information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your trading/investment decisions. FX-Strategy is merely providing this service for your general information. No representation is being made that any software or training will guarantee profits or not result in losses from trading. The views are not necessarily those of FX-Strategy, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. FX-Strategy will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this service. Be sure to closely read and understand the risks of foreign currency trading as described on the FX-Strategy website.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."