Wednesday October 5, 2005 - 00:22:56 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 5th October 2005 Price:
Resistance: 114.42 ... 114.59 ... 114.85 ... 115.20
Support....: 113.90 ... 113.67 ... 113.29 ... 112.85
Waiting for breaks of 114.59 or 113.90 to trigger a 60-70 point move
Still no break of 114.42-59 and this remains the barrier to the upside. While 113.90-00 supports we cannot rule out this break given the lack of downside yesterday. Any move above 114.60 would trigger follow-through to 114.85 and probably the 115.20-40 area which sees significant resistance and should stall any gains. Next resistance is at 115.84.
Price did everything right except break below the key 113.90-00 area and this remains the key to the downside. While 114.42-59 caps and abreak is seen below 113.90 we would then look for a dip down to 113.29 which should hold on first test for a minor pullback. Clean break below 113.29 would extend losses to the Fibonacci & pivot support area at 112.64.
Elliott Wave Comments:
3rd October 2005
No real change in the analysis though we should consider the risk that Friday's high at 113.67 completed the rally. Thus we suspect that this week could generate a sideways to lower bias and if 113.67 did provide the peak to Wave (iii) then we would target the 111.77 (50%) to 112.22 (38.2%) retracement area in Wave (iv) to allow Wave (v) to develop.
4th October 2005
The 114.37-42 area is implied by a range of Fibonacci relationships across time frames and thus we should be respectful of this area. It does not, however, seem to fit into a Wave (iii) target and that is the only concern we have. However, at 114.42 Wave (c) is equal to 161.8% of Wave (a) and within Wave (c) it possesess quite a few relationships. On the assumption that this area holds therefore, we would expect a 38.2% correction at least which rests at 112.64, itself a pivot support. A 50% retracement in Wave (iv) lies at 112.11, again another pivotal area.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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