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Wednesday October 5, 2005 - 11:34:48 GMT
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com

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Dollar Stuff

Key News
•European service industries such as banks and airlines grew at the fastest pace in 14 months in September. (Bloomberg)
•Key reports due today (Global-View.com):
14:00 GMT/10:00 EST- US- Sep Svc ISM PMI: vs. 65.0 in Aug, see 59.0
14:30 GMT/10:30 EST - US- API and DOE Energy Inventory Surveys

Quotable
“Successful trading requires a systematic approach. The complexity or theoretical underpinnings of any system is less important than the practical fit between the trading system and the personality of the trader which enables the trader to have some kind of an edge.”

F.J. Chu

FX Trading
Inflation is the talk, as in the chart we see below (courtesy of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, “Monetary Trends). But in the background, others are thinking about some scary stuff.

Chart: Monetary Trends

For example, this excerpt from Stratfor.com sent to us by a friend [our emphasis]:

“It is interesting to note that, despite his career-long habit of staying out of the United States' internecine political debates, Greenspan has, in the past year, developed a propensity to speak his mind (albeit in extremely couched terms). In most instances, such discussions involve pontification about the problems that his successor will face. These range from the budget deficit, to the instability in the housing market, to the touchy, vote-losing issue of unsustainable Social Security payments.

“The common theme winding through these discussions is simple and striking: the United States is living dangerously. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, the two quasi-state mortgage mega-firms, have almost totally crowded competition out of a $5.5 trillion debt market -- raising the prospects that the potential fall of only two companies could crash the entire country's financial structure.”

Yikes! A debt spiral of that magnitude would probably take care of any inherent inflation concerns—to say the least.

A recession is always seems considered a “bad thing” by the financial press. But a recession plays a cleansing role for the economy—the invisible hand swats away the inefficient users of scarce capital so that it can be allocated to those who most deserve it. The problem comes in when nanny government—very much like the one we have now—decides it must play the role of the savior from the “ravages of recession.”

Can you say “stagflation,” or worse, “Japanese style quagmire”? Sure, we knew you could! (Apologies to the late and great Mr. Rogers)

Anyway, that falls into the category of forecasting, something that doesn’t always do much for our currency trading account, which requires staying in the here and now with an eye toward what the market is telling us. And for now, the market seems to be saying yield is the driver despite all the potential scary stuff.

Jack Crooks
Black Swan Capital

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

Forex Trading Outlook


Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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