Saturday February 20, 2016 - 11:42:53 GMT
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A New Dawn For The U.S. Economy?
John M. Bland, MBA, CTA
Starting with January U.S. Retail Sales released a week ago, the tone of U.S. economic data MIGHT have started to improve, and it appears that equity markets have started already to be making that bet. The week just ending saw the release of the Minutes from the latest Fed meeting. Those Minutes were more dovish than the policy statement after that meeting and suggested that sentiment at the central bank was finally aligning itself with what the markets are pricing, namely one or two rate hikes this year. Equity markets took heart from this development a they tried to put in a bottom. I still feel U.S. economic data are mixed and that we will need to see a sustained set of improving data before markets are clearly out of the woods.
Current Market Conditions
Where the lead EURUSD relationship is headed will rest in large part on how equities perform in the weeks and months ahead. How they perform will hinge upon the upcoming flow of U.S. economic data. We know that neither the Fed nor the ECB want to see the USD (Fed) or the EUR (ECB) strengthen. That argues for my forecast for the past month of a EURUSD range of 1.10-1.15. The larger trading range has been roughly 1.05-1.15 over the past year or so, and that is looking reasonably secure.
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
All Day JP/EZ/US- flash PMIs
09:00 DE IFO Survey
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence
13:30 US- CPI
14:45 US- flash Service PMI
15:00 US- New Home Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
09:30 GB- GDP
10:00 EZ- HICP
23:30 JP- CPI
13:30 US- GDP
13:30 US- PCE Deflator
15:00 US- Final University of Michigan Survey
Be sure to refer daily Global-View to see the continuously UPDATED Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
John M. Bland
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