Wednesday October 5, 2005 - 12:41:09 GMT
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GVI Montly Survey courtesy Cumino:GVI Forex Sentiment survey analysis:
The first number is the Bull Index (two weeks ago in brackets). The 3 following numbers are the components, in this order: strong bears, neutral, strong bulls (previous).
EUR USD 3 months:
1st day close 1.1915 (1.2480), av. responses 1.1946 (1.2548), Adjusted boundaries 1.15-1.23 (1.21-1.29).
GVI 54% (55%) COMPONENTS 14%,63%, 23% (17%,57%, 26%)
Unchanged. Neutrals increased. Short term reading (R.B.) shows a bearish EUR view though not strong.
Important technical medium term supports (with a common view of big consequences if they are broken) were reached after the previous survey following the quick EUR/USD 5% decline. That, coupled with many USD positive arguments, seems have less influence than thought in the medium term view. This may be a unconscious relative value response.
USD JPY 3 months:
1st day close 114.10 (109.55), av. responses 112.29 (107.18), Adjusted boundaries 110-118 (106-114)
GVI: 35% (31%) COMPONENTS: 40%, 49%, 11% (44%, 50%, 6%)
Roughly unchanged, bearish USD. Short term Survey reading (R.B.) instead is bullish USD though not in absolute terms but in relative terms. (Remember that previous short term reading was the most bearish USD sentent ever seen, well signaling the up-risk for dollar).
EUR-USD and USD JPY show that, while in the short term the buy dip on every dollar weakness may be the preferred strategy, a very few people would play today a medium term USD strength.
That is logical, because traders are waiting a confirmation of the break of the important technical levels both in EUR-USD and USD-JPY. Bear in mind that the Survey is asking a 3 months view, which also means indirectly just a judgment on the break of those levels as well as the consequences.
OIL 3 months:
1st day close 65.47(65.96), av. responses 64.30(63.92), Adjusted boundaries 58-72(59-73)
GVI: 45%(44%) COMPONENTS: 18%74%8%(25%61%14%)
Unchanged. Short term shows a little more bullish sentiment, but only in relative terms.
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