Wednesday October 5, 2005 - 12:54:08 GMT
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GVI Monthly Forex Survey Results
In the latest monthly sentiment survey of professional forex dealers by global-view.com, the leading forex discussion site, sentiment for the dollar turned more bullish against the euro. The three month ahead forecast for EURUSD was a mean 1.1946 from 1.2548 a month earlier. The EURUSD spot price at the mid-point (October 3 close) of when the survey was being conducted was 1.1915.
The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index (0-100 50=neutral) remained roughly neutral the EUR/USD despite the recent changes in the spot rate to 54 from 55 previously. The GVI-Cumino index uses a theoretical neutral option strategy to measure the intensity and direction of individual trader sentiment from price levels at the time when forecasts were made.
The USD/JPY mean dollar forecast improved to 112.29 from 107.18 one month ago.
The USD/JPY spot rate at the mid-point of when the survey was being conducted was 114.10. The GVI-Cumino dollar bull remained bearish the dollar from the previous forecast. It was unchanged at 34.
Traders expect the price of crude oil to close at $64.14 in three months time from the current spot vs. the previous $63.56 estimate.
In a special question, participants were asked when they felt the Bank of Japan would abandon its ultra-easy monetary policy. Eight percent expected a move in 4Q05. Sixty-nine percent expect a change in 1H06, and the balance expected a change following 1H06.
For complete detailed survey results including history see:
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