Friday February 26, 2016 - 23:47:47 GMT
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Expectations For Shanghai G20 Low
John M. Bland, MBA, CTA
Some are expecting strong coordinated action from the weekend G20 meeting in Shanghai. I would be surprised by any major developments at this meeting because the nations involved have very limited scope for action. Central banks have run out of stimulus tools and the finances of most counties are stretched. Furthermore, changes in forex valuations cannot help he global economy because the price of a currency is set in terms of the other currencies. When one currency falls, other ones rise by the same amount. Its a zero sum game. I expect to hear a lot of rhetoric afterwards but not to see much action. The only cure I see for the global economic malaise is time.
Current Market Conditions
Conditions in the forex markets have not changed much in the past week. The lead EURUSD relationship remains in a broad trading range of very roughly 1.05 to 1.15. Within that range it seems to like to settle into a five cent range I correctly called for a higher trading band of 1.10- t0 1.15 a month or so ago, and now I am wondering if the 1.10 floor is going to hold. Perhaps, a floor of 1.08 is now where we are headed. U.S. February employment data on Friday will be a major focus for the Fed.
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
09:00 EZ- flash HICP
All Day Many- Final Mfg PMIs
03:30 AU- Reserve Bank Decision
13:15 US- ADP Private Jobs
15:30 US- EIA Crude
All Day Many- Final Service PMIs
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US/CA- Trade
13:30 US- Employment
Be sure to refer daily Global-View to see the continuously UPDATED Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
John M. Bland
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