Thursday October 6, 2005 - 00:39:15 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the Euro vs U.S. Dollar 6th October 2005 Price:
Resistance: 1.2016 ... 1.2034 ... 1.2056 ... 1.2085
Support....: 1.1985 ... 1.1958 ... 1.1927 ... 1.1899
We look for a pullback to 1.1957 (max 1.1927) before higher again
This morning's push to 1.2016 looks to have completed a move higher and thus we feel a pullback is more likely before we see further gains. We view the 1.1957 area as a good buying opportunity but with stops best placed below 1.1925. From this area or a direct break above 1.2020 we will look for move above 1.2034 and to the 1.2085-1.2112 resistance zone - probably the higher end.
The move to 1.2016 this morning looks to have completed an initial wave higher and thus we see initial trading today as a pullback lower. First support is around the 1.1980-85 pivot support but we suspect the decline can reach the 1.1957 support. We feel this should hold but should allow for a dip to 1.1927. Thus any stronger bearish stance will require a break below 1.1927 and then the 1.1899 low which, if seen, would extend losses down to 1.1823 at least.
Elliott Wave Comments:
3rd October 2005
The spike to 1.2089 was slightly deeper than would be expected and may imply that a low has been seen to Wave (iii) or Wave (v). Indeed, if this is the case, then we'd probably prefer this to be the end of Wave (a) lower and thus look for Wave (b) of the daily Wave (v) lower. For now we'd rather observe the initial movement this week to get a better judge of the structure.
4th October 2005
The 1.1897 level has been an identfied potential target for some while, implied by Wave (iii) being 261.8% of Wave (i) and it also happens to be a possible 76.4% projection in the alternative count in Wave (v). It is common for the first Wave -a- in Wave (v) to reach the area of the previous Wave (iii) extreme - this being at 1.1864 and therefore we could accept either count - the only possible difference being the extent of the pullback. For now, however, we look for a pullback either in Wave (iv) to 1.2113-1.2179 or in Wave -b- to the same area and possibly as high as 1.2241.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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