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Thursday October 6, 2005 - 11:09:43 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange - https://fx.mellon.com/

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• USD moves onto the defensive after disappointing ISM survey. 1.2100 key on EUR-USD.
• Global equity markets retreat.
• UK manufacturing output, German manufacturing orders weaker.
• UK MPC and ECB meetings feature today.

Market Outlook

Weaker US equity markets and the sharp drop in the nonmanufacturing ISM yesterday have continued to conspire against the USD overnight, fuelling the perception that the downside pressure on EUR-USD has relented for now. Growing optimism about the resolution of the German political impasse is also offering some support for the EUR. Most of the movement overnight has been on the USD against European currencies, with USD-JPY supported by the fact that Japanese equity indices tumbled even more sharply than those in the US.

Yesterday’s ISM survey showed higher prices paid as well as slower business activity and in the current environment this is not the combination that equities or the USD wanted to see. The tone of the survey stood in sharp contrast to the strength inactivity displayed in ISM manufacturing on Monday.

The prices paid index, reflecting higher fuel prices, rose to its mhighest level since the non-manufacturing survey began in 1997, while the business activity index fell to its lowest level since April 2003 (the time of the Iraq war). It seems highly unlikely that such a combination will be sustained as it relates to how respondents report the situation compared to that in place the previous month. This rate of change, triggered largely by the impact of Katrina, is unlikely to be repeated next month and if anything should revert the other way. However, in the current environment where Fed rhetoric is suggesting the possibility of hiking rates on the basis of inflation, regardless of any short term slowdown in activity, yesterday’s survey clearly struck a raw nerve.

This in itself makes things more equivocal for the USD in the short-term, which had seemingly been building up to an upside break against the EUR (below 1.1868). The bets on this development would be off for now if it gets back above 1.2100. Tomorrow’s employment report may yet influence how things develop.

German manufacturing orders were weaker than expected although one month of weakness after the strength seen in recent months does not undermine the overall uptrend (see chart). This data is typically volatile on a m/m basis. Data this morning in the UK was mixed, with another advance in HBOS house prices being offset by a weak showing in manufacturing output. The HBOS data adds to the better tone to recent housing data, although the ONS pointed out that industrial output left some downside risk to Q3 GDP. EUR-GBP was stronger after the manufacturing data but has since fallen back. 0.6823-25 needs to be breached to see this move

Day Ahead
UK – the MPC meeting outcome should be a non-event, even though there is a small chance of the dovish camp, seemingly in the majority, enforcing their views. However, amidst the gloom in most of the data there has been stabilisation in some of the housing market indicators. On this basis, they are likely to wait until next month, when the analysis will be conducted for the next Inflation Report.

Eurozone – the ECB meeting is unlikely to reveal any major new initiatives, although they may err on the hawkish side. They are likely to note the threat that higher oil prices bring for both activity and inflation, although given the strength in other economic releases they may attach slightly more weight to the inflationary consequences.

Diary

Data/event EDT Consensus*

GB MPC rate announcement 07.00 4.50%
EU ECB meeting outcome 07.45, press conf 08.30 2.00%
US Initial claims (w/e Oct 01) 08.30 356k last
US Continuing claims (w/e Sep 24) 08.30 2802k last
CA Building permits (Aug) m/m 08.30 -0.5%
CA PMI (Sep, nsa) 10.00 56.5
CA BoC’s Macklem speaks 16.10
GB NIESR GDP (3mths end Sep) q/q 19.01 +0.5% last

Latest data Actual Consensus*
GB HBOS house prices (Sep) m/m +1.2% +1.6% last
GB Ind prod (Aug) m/m -0.9% +0.2%
GB Manu output (Aug) m/m -0.2% +0.1%
DE Manu orders (Aug) m/m -3.7% -2.1%
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005

 

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