User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday October 6, 2005 - 11:20:40 GMT
Black Swan Capital -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Oil and the Dollar

Key News
•Industrial output in the UK marked its sharpest fall in five months during August. (BBC)
•In terms of the substitution effect, China’s coal market is key. Ample statistics and anecdotes suggest that China’s coal supply is plentiful again and the forced increase in oil demand due to coal shortages last year is over. (Morgan Stanley)
•Japan's Topix stock index fell by the most in almost six months. (Bloomberg)
•Key reports due today (
11:00 GMT/7:00 EST- UK- BOE Policy Decision
11:45 GMT/7:45 EST- EU- ECB Policy Announcement
12:30 GMT/8:30 EST - EU- ECB Policy Press Conference
12:30 GMT/8:30 EST- US- Weekly Jobless Claims
12:30 GMT/8:30 EST - CDA- Aug Building Permits
14:00 GMT/8:30 EST - CDA- Sep Ivey PMI

“The income redistribution due to high oil prices is significant. The current oil prices are about US$24/barrel higher than last year’s average. At a production level of 85 million barrels/day, oil producers receive US$2 billion/day extra. If the current prices last until year-end, the average prices for 2005 would be US$17 higher than last year’s, giving oil producers a US$527 billion windfall.”

Andy Xie, Morgan Stanley

FX Trading
Is the rise in crude good for the dollar in a round-about way? It seems so.

Chart: Crude vs. US$ Index Daily

Thus, the decline in crude may be bad for the dollar—in a round-about sort of way. For quite possibly crude prices still maintain an element of demand despite being lately it’s “all about supply.” It’s through the demand side, from a macro standpoint, that one can most easily draw the oil-dollar correlation. (Granted, a supply shock could play a role. But our short story today is about demand.)

Rising oil prices “automatically” feed into inflation is the mantra like drone of the financial press. Wrong!

Bloomberg’s Caroline Baum over the years has battled this cost-push notion to no avail it seems. She tries again in a recent piece [our emphasis]:

“One of the most tenacious myths in economics is the idea that costs push prices, and the price level (inflation), up. The idea of ``cost-push'' inflation implies that producers are content to charge the same price, day in, day out, until one day a bell goes off to alert them that their costs of raw materials or labor (wages) have gone up.

“Golly, gee, these costs are killing me, our average businessman opines. I'm going to have to raise my prices.

“There is something intuitively appealing about the idea that costs push prices up. The fact that it's incorrect does nothing to limit that appeal.”

It’s all about demand, writes Baum:

“While it may appear as though ‘increased raw material costs have caused a higher final product price, the actual cause of the higher prices at every level of the manufacturing and distribution network is the initial increase in aggregate demand for the final product,’ Batten said. (Bear Stearns Economist Sandy Batten said that in 1981 in the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis's June/July Economic Review.)

“And increased economy-wide demand is a function of an increased supply of money relative to what the public wants to hold (money demand).

“You get the drift. It's always convenient for governments to shift the blame to ‘greedy businessmen, grasping trade unions, spendthrift consumers, Arab sheikhs, bad weather, or anything else that seems even remotely plausible,’ said Milton Friedman, Nobel laureate in economics.”

Warning: A convoluted sentence to follow.

Maybe rising oil prices, led by global demand, enriching oil produces with a windfall of $527 billion estimates Mr. Andy Xie, who recycle those dollars back into the real economy, stimulating demand, helping China, who recycles money back to Treasuries, is boosting the buck.

And if global demand is a function of easy money, we have to think a “successful Fed”, now sporting its “price stability” hat, might dampen said demand and flow of money to oil producers… Is that a feedback loop?

It’s all so darn confusing. Economics it is. Economic “Science” it is not.

Jack Crooks
Black Swan Capital


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 17 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105