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Saturday April 2, 2016 - 06:31:01 GMT
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Latest Brexit Poll Update: Why Insiders say UK Will Leave the EU

We continue to attract strong interest with over 700 new respondents this past week to our Brexit tracking poll. In the poll we ask the question, Do you expect the June 23 Brexit referendum result to be the UK leaving or staying in the EU? Our results, meanwhile, continue to contrast with public polls and show an overwhelming expectation that the June 23 vote will be to leave the EU (see latest results below).

We have gone one step further in our poll by asking our respondents in a follow up for their thoughts on why there is such a disparity between our online poll and public polls. The feedback we are getting is quite revealing. Those responding are mainly in favor of Brexit and many appear to have strong feelings about this issue. This may account for the strong bias in our poll for Brexit as those in favor seem motivated to express their opinions. See what our respondents ("the insiders") have to say: 

 In my daily business I meet people from all walks of life and for some years now I have been discussing the failures of the EU and our need to leave, I have yet to meet one single person who wants us to stay in!!

 Everyone I speak to is more concerned with sovereignty and immigration and relaxing of red tape. Everyone is ready to accept financial instability for a period of time if BREXIT actually happens

Everybody I meet within my work and social environment seems to be for voting out and I meet many people and I haven't found anyone yet who is for in?

Not surprised by Brexit being favoured as this reflects what I glean from my statistically tiny circle of associates. Often quoted reasons - no  trust in politicians (except Farage) or the Establishment / greater held concern about mass movements, immigration, asylum seekers and migrants than economy / suppression of proper debate / Project Fear / EU expansion / no control of borders / let's get our country back then kick on from there.

Most people I know either want to vote out or haven't made their mind up. I live in a rural, largely English environment which may make a difference compared to towns & cities where there are many foreigners nowadays so it may be that the surveys are carried out in cities. 

Not all are passionate:

I have been out on the street canvassing for the Grassroots group and the response has been good for Brexit but there are a large number of people that are uninterested in the outcome, being part of the EU has not made a difference to their lives so they cannot be bothered. 

Click to participate in our Brexit Poll

 

Brexit Poll Results:

The overall results continue to show extremely high expectations for a Brexit outcome.

Overall results

Mar 6

Mar 13

Mar 20

Mar 26

Apr 2

Brexit

58%

85%

85%

86%

87%

No Brexit

42%

15%

15%

14%

13%

 

Past week results; UK expectations remain highly elevated

UK Respondents

Mar 6

Mar 13

Mar 20

Mar 26

Apr 2

Brexit

83%

91%

90%

84%

92%

No Brexit

17%

9%

10%

16%

8%

 

Past week results: Non-UK expectations remain high but with a smaller sample.

Non-UK

Mar 6

Mar 13

Mar 20

Mar 26

Apr 2

Brexit

12%

53%

58%

70%

74%

No Brexit

78%

47%

42%

30%

26%

 

Breakdown UK vs Non-UK

Total #

Mar 6

Mar 13

Mar 20

Mar 26

Apr 2

UK

32%

88%

85%

90%

89%

Non-UK

88%

12%

15%

10%

11%

 

I continue to be amazed at the overwhelming expectation for a vote for Brexit = a vote to leave the EU. I have searched for reasons to explain the divergence with public polls and what I have gleaned from feedback I have gotten from many respondents is they have strong feelings about Brexit. This suggests they are motivated to vote in the June 23 referendum where turnout may be the deciding factor. I have also sensed that the older generation feel more comfortable expressing their views in an online vs. a public poll where it is their choice whether to participate as opposed to being called to ask for an opinion.

Please note that we do not have a bias and am only reporting the results, where the trend has not changed since we started it around a month ago. As I have been noting, there has been little show of concern in the forex or equity markets of late but bears watching, especially as the referendum date comes closer on the radar.  We will be watching these markets closely to see if they start to confirm what we are seeing in our poll. In this regard, sterling, which had staged a mid-week rally, fell back both vs. the dollar and EUR to end the week.

Click to participate in our Brexit Poll

Jay Meisler, founder

Global Traders Association

Contact: jay@tradersadvocate.com

 

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
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13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
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09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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