Tuesday October 11, 2005 - 00:03:24 GMT
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Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz
Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning ReportNew Zealand Dollar: NZD: eyes on survey
The NZD staged a mild recovery during yesterday's local trading session. After opening the day around 0.6950 and moving to a low of 0.6947, USD sellers emerged helping the NZD to a local close of 0.6965. From there London saw continued buying of the NZD, with it briefly touching on 0.7000, before being sold later in the day. It opens this morning around 0.6975 with all eyes on the Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, due out around 10am.
Australian Dollar: AUD slightly higher
The AUD held its ground on Monday despite most major currencies weakening against the USD. The currency started the day around 0.7560, and after a small test to the downside rallied to 0.7580 during domestic trading. The offshore session continued the buying with AUD reaching a high of 0.7606, before being sold along with most majors against the USD. It opens this morning around 0.7585, with the RBA deputy governor's speech the main focus today.
Major Currencies: Dollar up in thin trade
The USD firmed on Monday, with investors renewing their focus on the prospect of rising interest rates, expectations of dollar positive data later in the week and declining oil prices. After gaining early in the session the euro fell on concern a German government led by Christian Democratic leader Angela Merkel will struggle to push through tax cuts and labour law changes to revive Europe's largest economy. The euro opens this morning around 1.2057 after drifting off from its high of 1.2154 reached during early offshore trading. The US and Japanese holiday ensured a quiet day and listless trading for the yen saw it confined to a range of 113.65 to 113.83 for much of the day but staged a late rally to 114.29. USD/JPY opens around 114.10 this morning.
No US data to report.
UK producer prices hint at cost pass-through.
Although there was an energy related input price decline in September, output prices, both headline and core, rose more sharply than expected, rising to 3.3% yr and 2.1% yr respectively. This may add to Bank of England concerns about future inflationary pressures, although intense competition on the high street may help constrain any consequent upward pressure on consumer prices.
French industrial production rose 0.8% in August.
This failed to fully reverse July's decline, nevertheless it represents a helpful offset to the surprisingly soft German IP data for August released last week.
Country Release Last Forecast
NZ Q3 NZIER Bus Confidence net% -34% n/f
Aust Sep NAB Business Survey 8 n/f
RBA Dep. Gov Stevens speaks in Hobart 6:30pm
US FOMC Meeting Minutes
Jpn Bank of Japan Meeting
Aug Machinery Orders -4.3% 3.0%
UK Aug Trade Balance £bn -5.1 -5.2
Sep BRC Retail Sales Monitor
Can Sep Housing Starts -17.1% 5.0%
Aug New House Prices 0.2% 0.3%
Latest Research papers/Publication
NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (10 October)
NZ Weekly Interest Rate Wrap-up (10 October)
NZ Q3 Employment Confidence Index (5 October)
NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (3 October)
NZ Weekly Interest Rate Wrap-up (3 October)
Economics vs sentiment (29 September)
NZ Q2 GDP Review (29 September)
NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (26 September)
NZ Weekly Interest Rate Wrap-up (26 September)
NZ Q2 GDP Preview (23 September)
These papers/publications are available on Online Research on
Westpac Institutional Banks website (www.wib.westpac.co.nz)
Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 24 May 2005. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.
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