Tuesday October 11, 2005 - 00:58:23 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 11th October 2005 Price:
Resistance: 1.2825 ... 1.2900 ... 1.2920 ... 1.2954
Support....: 1.2823 ... 1.2800 ... 1.2777 ... 1.2749
Mixed - waiting for breaks - though suspect a move to 1.2954 for a peak
The reversal higher from 1.2669 was not expected but we feel it is a little too early for the uptrend to resume. We do however, recommend a flexible approach as we observe the various structures that could develop. While 1.2823 supports there is quite a good drisk of follow-through above 1.2870-80 and then 1.2900 and to the 1.2954 area. However, this could allow a peak to form for further losses. Thus, only a clean break above 1.2954 would suggest gains can extend towards 1.3006 where a pullback is possible ahead of a retest of the 1.3042 high.
The reversal from 1.2669 was not expected and does complicate the picture. However, if anything we feel that the upside looks a little more favorable initially. Thus only a break below 1.2820 would see losses resume down to the 1.2749-77 area where some care should be exercised. Only a break at 1.2749 would see losses follow-through to 1.2707 and possibly the 1.2639-69 area. Any earlier rally to 1.2954 should provide a cautious selling opportunity.
Elliott Wave Comments:
11th October 2005
The move down to 1.2669 may have completed Wave [B] although we feel this is a little too brief. The nature of the decline was a little unclear though we felt this was in five waves and thus could be only Wave a of Wave [B]. If this is correct then we would not expect the current move higher to reach above 1.2954 and should then imply a move down to marginal new lows. We retain 1.2639 as a 50% pullback from 1.3042 with 1.2544-70 then implied for a deeper 58.6%-61.8% pullback.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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