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Tuesday October 11, 2005 - 12:11:39 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 11-10-05 ..... 1153 GMT

Euro @ 1.2032/5.....Holding Short
----------------------------------
R: 1.2049-51 / 1.2064 / 1.2087
S: 1.2012 / 1.1966-51
The Euro dipped to 1.2012 and then bounced to 1.2049 during the day. And its slipping back again. Thus, the Resistance at 1.2051 seems to be holding so far on the day. Now, if the Support at 1.2012 breaks, a fall towards 1.1966 may well be seen, which may extend down to 1.1933 also. But, in case of a strong rise past 1.2050, there would again be chances of 1.2090-2110 being seen in a day or two.

Holding:
EUR 20K Short at 1.2014, SL 1.2060, TP 1.1972


$-Yen @ 114.04/08....Support 113.76. Resistance 114.44
-----------------------------------------------------
R: 114.33-44 / 114.78-83 / 115.06
S: 114.02 / 113.76 / 113.50
The market has been spiking up and down between 114.33 and 113.75 so far today, as we'd hoped it would. If the market remains above 113.75 and closes above 114.44-55 over today-tomorrow, then we could see fresh bullishness emerging. However, a fall below 113.75 could give rise to days of confusing range trade between 113-114. Watching, no trades.


Euro-Yen @ 137.26/31....Cautiously Short
----------------------------------------------
R: 137.49-64-79 / 138.10 / 138.30
S: 137.00-136.92 / 136.66 / 136.33
The Cross has found Support just above 136.92, the statistically projected Max Low for the day. We hope that this Support will break over today-tomorrow and the Cross will fall towards 136.00. We've sold at 137.22 in anticipation of such a fall and shall hold the position while the market remains below 137.79, the 61.8% retracement of the fall from 138.30 (10-Oct) to 137.02 (today). In case of a rise above that, the Cross could peek above 138.00.

Our original SL was 138.40, but we are narrowing it, to keep within our normal Risk limits.

Holding:
EUR 20K Short at 137.22, SL 137.91 (down from 138.40), TP 136.00




$-Swiss @ 1.2858/63....Resistance at 1.2886
-------------------------------------------
R: 1.2886-2903 / 1.2939-57
S: 1.2837-17 / 1.2797
Is in a small channel upmove on the 4-hour charts, starting from the 1.2671 Low on 06-Oct. Channel Resistance near 1.2886. And then at 1.2903. We might see good bullishness occur in case of a Day Close above this. Else, there could be chances of a fall towards 1.2652 over the course of the next couple of weeks. No trades.


Cable @ 1.7517/22.....Holding Long
---------------------------------
R: 1.7547 / 1.7562-70 / 1.7626-41
S: 1.7471-63 / 1.7436-27 / 1.7388
Trend Support near 1.7500 on the uptrend line coming up from the Sep-03 Low near 1.5609. We've bought on a spike below the trendline and the market has not given us grief as yet. So, there could be some chances of some decent upside in the Cable, targeting 1.7610-45, if not higher. In case the Cable is unable to rise above 1.7645 over today and tomorrow, then the overall bearishness will be further strengthened.

Holding:
GBP 15K Long at 1.7487, SL 1.7460 (up from 1.7417), TP 1.7600




Aussie @ 0.7557/62....Crucial Support at 0.7550
------------------------------------------------
R: 0.7577-98 / 0.7618-23 / 0.7665
S: 0.7550-33 / 0.7496 / 0.7463
The Aussie is trading above the 0.7560-50 Support that has been holding for the last few days. If our morning prognosis be correct, then an upmove developing over the next few days, targeting 0.7600 initially and then higher towards 0.7650. BUT, if the Aussie falls below 0.7550 today (possibility cannot be ruled out), then we might be proved wrong and the market could target 0.7535 and then lower.

Holding:
AUD 30K long at 0.7560, SL 0.7535, TP 0.7590 (down from 0.7630).




Happy Trading!


 

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