Tuesday June 22, 2004 - 23:56:24 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Daily forecast for US Dollar vs Japanese Yen 23rd June 2004Price 109.20
Support:.... 109.40 ... 109.60 ... 109.90 ... 110.25
Resistance: 109.00 ... 108.90 ... 108.65 ... 108.35
Initially higher to 109.55-60 then correcting to 108.60-70
The recovery from 108.22 continues to be encouraging with a test of 109.39 yesterday. While 108.90-00 holds we look for the rally to move towards the 109.55-60 resistance but expect this to hold. Thus only above 109.60 accelerates the rally through 109.90 to 110.25-50. Next resistance is at 111.46.
The recovery from 108.22 has continued and we feel that early trading today should see a move up to 109.55-60. However, we see this level provoking a pullback lower and see favored targets at 108.70-90 with yesterday's low at 108.35-40 also providing support. Thus only below 108.35 would trigger losses through to 108.15 and possibly 107.80.
Elliott Wave Comments:
Although we are disappointed that our ideal target for this retracement at 109.90 was breached we have seen good relationships in the new count shown below which identifies the 108.70-00 area as a good stalling point for Wave [iv]. This represents a 61.8% retracement of the Wave [iii] rally and while deep does not break the pattern. Given that 109.02 did indeed provide the low for Wave [iv] this would imply a quick move back to 113.30 (watch the prior broken uptrend line now at 112.10 and rising) under Elliott guidelines as the intervening Wave B. Following a correction from there look for Wave [v] to rally to 116.10 minimum and probably 117.75.
We have made a slight amendment to the wave structure calling the decline from 111.96 to 108.67 as a second Wave (A) with the peak at 111.46 being Wave (B). Wave equality of Wave (A) would provide a target for Wave (C) at 108.15. However, we should also point out the Wave [b] low (of Wave [iii]) at 108.30 which should normally provide support. Clearly with an important cycle low due around this point of time we feel the 108.15-30 area should hold to complete Wave [iv] and allow Wave [v] to begin.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc
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