Saturday May 28, 2016 - 16:27:36 GMT
Share This Story
Global-View - www.global-view.com
Data Seal Fed Rate Hike
John M. Bland, MBA
Friday afternoon Fed Chair Yellen surprised the markets by indicating that a rate hike would probably be appropriate in coming monhs. This was taken as a clear rate hike signal.
Latest Data Favors A Rate Hike
The focus of trade for the past two weeks has been on comments from key Fed officials that apparently a rate hike is imminent. When a Fed official sends a rate change signal ahead of time, they usually warn that the final decision is data-dependent. In the past week we have seen two outsized gains in recent housing statistics (New Homes Sales and Pending Homes Sales) which suggest that the data are improving. The two reports reinforced confidence in the other, which is always something we like to see.
May Employment Statistics
The end of the new week will feature May employment figures, which could be a deciding factor vis-a-vis the economy. Note that Fed speakers have been lowering the bar for an acceptable level of growth in non-farm payrolls to around 100K/mo from +200K previously. One item which might be a fly in the ointment is the U.K. Brexit Referendum scheduled for June 23. The Next Fed meeting (June 15) is just before that vote and the Fed will want to be careful not to upset the markets just before that event. Current market od0ds for a June rate hike stand at just below 40%. A hike by the end of July has odds in excess of 60%. I agree with the June odds, but feel the hike by the end of July readings are too low. I put them in excess of 80%.
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
00:00 GB/US- Holiday
07:55 DE- Employment
09:00 EZ- flash HICP
12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator
13:45 US- Chicago PMI
14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
00:30 AU- GDP
all day Global PMIs
18:00 US- Beige Book
11:45 EZ- ECB
12:15 US- ADP
12:30 US Weekly Jobless
15:00 US- Crude
all Day Global PMIs
12:30 US- Employment
Be sure to refer daily Global-View to see the continuously UPDATED Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
John M. Bland
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."