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Friday April 30, 2004 - 00:11:34 GMT
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Forecast for Majors for 30th April 2004

General Market Conditions

Against the Euro and Swissie the Dollar held key resistance levels at 1.1805 and 1.3100-20 respectively and from there we had an aggressive reversal to new lows. This keeps the medium term corrective scenario firmly in play and we can probably expect further erratic price development. In general we feel this tends to lean towards further losses to test 1.2710 at least and 1.2075-1.2120. The marginal new low at 1.7579 caught us out but we feel this could still be part of a larger correction although resistance at 1.7815 may be hard to breach. We'll have to further assess this as price develops. The Dollar made gains against the Japanese Yen also before a pullback but held below the important 111.10 resistance. We are a little mixed here but there is room for losses to 108.70 at least. Have a great weekend.

Price: 109.90

Day View
Resistance: 110.10 ... 110.45 ... 110.65 ... 111.10
Support....: 109.50 ... 109.25 ... 108.95 ... 108.70

Bias: Mixed - waiting for breaks

Bullish: The reversal from 111.01 back to 109.51 appears to be the beginning of a period of consolidation. There is resistance at 110.45-65 which should hold while the consolidation keeps price on the defensive. Thus only above 110.65 and then 111.10-20 would trigger direct gains that would then target 111.55-75.

Bearish: Reversal from 111.01 appears to have completed this part of the rally and should allow losses. It is not clear whether we shall break any key ranges today but watch resistance around 110.45-65 which we feel has more chance of holding and generating losses. However, only below 109.25-50 would allow those losses to make their way down to 108.70. Further support is at 108.30.

Week View
Resistance: 111.10 ... 111.55 ... 112.15 ... 113.40
Support....: 108.70 ... 107.25 ... 106.30 ... 105.20

While further gains were seen above the 4-hour Pivot Cloud these bounced from the 111.10 resistance and could signal a period of consolidation before the rally can continue. Schaff Trend Cycle has only just begun to decline from 100 while FXS-RSI has moved down from overbought territory and is neutral. The medium to long term is still positive and we see the 108.30-70 area as good support.

Bullish: Rejection yesterday was interesting in that the 111.10 area had a direct relation to the initial 103.42 -> 107.21 rally and thus we feel the overall direction is still positive but may require a period of consolidation before it resumes. Thus while 108.30-70 holds we look for a break back above 111.10. If this occurs directly (from 109.25-50) this could allow a move to 111.55-75 initially but if we see a larger decline to 108.30-70 then we feel the target will then be around 114.00-50.

Bearish: Reversal at 111.01 appears to favor a slightly longer period of correction. While price remains below 110.45-65 this would suggest a move to 108.70, with marginal risk of seeing 108.30. However, only below 108.30 would trigger a deeper pullback to 107.20-50 before higher.

Month View
(Updated 19th April)
Resistance: 109.25 ... 111.15 ... 112.30 ... 114.90
Support....: 104.80 ... 103.30 ... 101.30 ..... 99.50

Having seen a move back above the 107.21-65 area the emphasis appears to be back on the upside in line with the bullish weekly and monthly cycles. We require 104.80-00 to hold for this and a move back above 109.25 would encourage gains up to 111.15, 112.32 with 114.90 being a higher target to keep in mind. Back below 104.80 would threaten the 103.42 low and call for losses down to 100.40.

Price: 1.1955

Day View
Resistance: 1.1980 ... 1.2000 ... 1.2025 ... 1.2050
Support....: 1.1950 ... 1.1915 ... 1.1890 ... 1.1870

Bias: Mixed - waiting for breaks

Bullish: The support at 1.1805 held and the recovery has been so swift it could mean we shall see some tight ranging before the next move. However, there is good support between 1.1920-50 and we do expect this to hold. If we see a move back above 1.1980 there is risk to 1.2000 at least and directly above here is required to generate follow-through to 1.2075 and possibly 1.2120.

Bearish: The sharp and aggressive rally from 1.1805 broke above the 1.1950 corrective peak and does not appear to support a bearish stance. We feel it is likely that today will find any dips holding the 1.1920-50 area. Thus only below 1.1920 would provoke another reversal back to 1.1845.

Week View
Resistance: 1.2000 ... 1.2075 ... 1.2120 ... 1.2205
Support....: 1.1920 ... 1.1845 ... 1.1725 ... 1.1575

The sharp reversal back above the 4-hour Pivot Cloud has been aggressive and has broken the prior 1.1950 peak. Schaff TC1 is now rising although is high while FXS-RSI has labored in neutral territory. With the break of 1.1950 the emphasis does appear to be to the upside and we shall need to assess just how far this can rally.

Bullish: The reversal from 1.1805 and break of 1.1950 signals a move to 1.2075 at least and possibly 1.2120. While this is possible price should remain above 1.1900-50. At the target a further set back is possible and we shall need to see how deep this pullback bites. Further resistance is at 1.2205 and 1.2335.

Bearish: The break of 1.1950 appears to reduce the chance of a direct resumption of the downtrend and may cause a period of choppy and erratic trading. We do feel that while 1.1900-50 holds the chances favor a move to 1.2075-1.2120 but we look for this higher area to generate a pullback. Alternatively a direct break of 1.1900 causes a move to 1.1845 at least but only below 1.1805 and 1.1758 would signal direct losses.

Month View
(Updated 19th April)
Resistance: 1.2085 ... 1.2325 ... 1.2455 ... 1.2655
Support....: 1.1720 ... 1.1560 ... 1.1310 ... 1.1165

While the progress lower has been choppy we do feel that the repeated rejection around 1.2400-55 and the decline from there should now allow price to move down to the Double Top target around 1.1720-50 and we suspect now a stronger decline. Support at 1.1560 may hold for a while but we while 1.1820-50 holds we consider the larger risk to be lower to 1.1165 over the next 4-6 weeks.

Price: 1.2920

Day View
Resistance: 1.2940 ... 1.2970 ... 1.2995 ... 1.3020
Support....: 1.2890 ... 1.2865 ... 1.2840 ... 1.2215

Bias: Mixed - waiting for break

Bullish: Failure to break above 1.3100-20 provoked a large and aggressive decline and does not encourage a bullish outlook. The most we can see for today would be on a break of 1.2940 which would allow a test at 1.2970-95 but we feel this will hold. Only above 1.3000 would prompt unexpected follow-through to 1.3050 which if seen should hold.

Bearish: The losses from 1.3098 reached 1.2890 this morning. We feel the medium term is still bearish and while price remains below 1.2940-70 we still feel the risk is lower to 1.2825 at least and possibly as far as 1.2760. However, we should also allow for today to see tight ranges in a consolidation. Further support is at 1.2710-20.

Week View
Resistance: 1.3050 ... 1.3100 ... 1.3225 ... 1.3385
Support....: 1.2825 ... 1.2760 ... 1.2710 ... 1.2596

Price held below 1.3100 and broke aggressively below the 4-hour Pivot Cloud and also below the minor uptrend support. Schaff Trend Cycle is now declining but close to zero while FXS-RSI is rising from oversold territory but is neutral. With the break of 1.2950 we feel the coming week should bring losses to 1.2710 once again.

Bullish: No break of 1.3100-20 and with the sharp losses seen yesterday we feel the upside is placed on hold. Thus only a move back above 1.2995 would call for 1.3050 but any stronger bullish stance needs a break of this higher area to generate upside again. Next resistance is at 1.3100 and then the 1.3226 high.

Bearish: The bearish divergence in 4-hour FXS-RSI appears to be confirmed now and we feel that the 1.2995 (max 1.3050) area should hold and allow losses down to 1.2710 at least and maybe somewhere between 1.2596 and 1.2710. However, we are cautious about expecting any further weakness beyond this area.

Month View
(Updated 3rd April)
Resistance: 1.3085 ... 1.3235 ... 1.3410 ... 1.3700
Support....: 1.2625 ... 1.2515 ... 1.2180 ... 1.1700

The expected move higher has met with some early choppy price action but we feel this should now move onto the 1.3220-35 area this month at the very least and do see some risk of seeing gains extend to 1.3410. Watch this area since it could cause a pullback. Further resistance is around 1.3700.

Price: 1.7720

Day View
Resistance: 1.7760 ... 1.7775 ... 1.7815 ... 1.7850
Support....: 1.7700 ... 1.7675 ... 1.7625 ... 1.7575

Bias: Mixed - waiting for breaks

Bullish: The dip down to 1.7579 and then a sharp reversal caught us out. Overall, having tested the 1.7815 pivot resistance we are cautious about expecting any further gains. However, should support at 1.7675 hold we could see some move back higher again. The greater risk is for a sideways consolidation. However, any break above 1.7815 would allow the move higher to extend towards 1.7850, 1.7880 and possibly the peaks around 1.7930.

Bearish: With the sharp pullback having stalled at 1.7811-15 we feel there may be some risk of a pullback today. For this we require 1.7760-75 to hold and any break below 1.7700 would call for follow-through to 1.7675 at least with some risk of seeing 1.7625.

Week View
Resistance: 1.7815 ... 1.7970 ... 1.8090 ... 1.8145
Support....: 1.7625 ... 1.7465 ... 1.7330 ... 1.7255

We were caught by the reversal from 1.7579 but thus far the recovery has held below the 4-hour Pivot Cloud and also below the 1.7815 pivot resistance. Schaff Trend Cycle is now at zero while FXS-RSI is now gradually recovering from oversold. This recovery does suggest a period of consolidation and we need to look for breaks of key levels to judge the next move.

Bullish: The recovery from 1.7579 has held below the 1.7815 pivot resistance. We are mixed but in general there does appear to be suggestion that the shorter cycles are rising at the moment. Thus while 1.7625-75 holds we feel the risk does appear to be greater on the upside but we need a break of 1.7815 to confirm. On this break price should be able to follow-through towards 1.8090-1.8145 at least. Further resistance is at 1.8210.

Bearish: At first the break of 1.7624 looked bearish but with the sharp recovery we need to exercise some caution. While resistance at 1.7815 holds there could be some choppy pullback but only below first 1.7675 and then 1.7625 would trigger a more bearish scenario once again and look for losses down to 1.7465 initially.

Month View
(Updated 19th April)
Resistance: 1.8300 ... 1.8605 ... 1.8875 ... 1.9025
Support....: 1.7650 ... 1.7165 ... 1.6905 ... 1.6565

The move lower has met with a choppy start but we feel that we should now see losses resume and expect to see progress to the next support at 1.7650 this week. From there we should see a correction develop but the coming 4-6 weeks looks bearish towards 1.7165.

Copyright (c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004

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