Sunday October 16, 2005 - 07:07:33 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 17th October 2005 Price:
Resistance: 114.30 ... 114.69 ... 115.08 ... 115.40
Support....: 113.73 ... 113.53 ... 113.27 ... 113.00
We look for 114.30-50 to cap and for losses to 113.00 and possibly 112.70
Price broke below the 114.02-25 support to generate follow-through lower to 113.84. At this point we do not think the downside is complete and thus we need confirmation of any bullish stance. There is initial resistance at 114.30 and then 114.50-69 and above these levels is required to generate any possible attempt on the 115.08 high. Above this peak we see resistance at the weekly pivot resistance around 115.40 and stronger at 115.84.
Loss of 114.02-19 has see losses, though not too deep as yet. We feel that the 114.30 level (max 114.50-69) should cap and trigger losses to 113.53-73 initially and after a small pullback the correction should extend lower towards 113.00 at least and possibly 112.70 but we expect this general area to hold. Next support is found at 112.50 and 112.00.
Elliott Wave Comments:
17th October 2005
The failure to break higher to the 115.84 Wave [iii] target was disappointing but given that daily Wave [ii] was quite brief but deep, we may see a longer sideways, complex correction in Wave [iv]. We note support around 112.50-70 (23.6% retracement and pivot support respectively) and will watch this for signs of strength that could occur within an expanded flat. However, at this point it is a little adventuroous to be identifying the pattern and must be flexible with our approach. A 38.2% correction to the move from 104.18 is at 110.92 and we will also keep this in mind.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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