Wednesday June 22, 2016 - 19:14:32 GMT
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EU Referendum - 23rd June...what it may mean to your trading..
We are fast approaching the actual voting for the UK’s EU Referendum on this Thursday the 23rd of June and I thought it would be timely to give you a guide on what to look out for on the night & shortly thereafter. This is by no means comprehensive and things may change even at this late stage. All times mentioned are basis London time.
KEY POINTS TO REMEMBER…
The opinion polls suggest the result is finely balanced.
The Leave vote is expected to do well in areas with older and lower skilled workers, particularly in the East of England.
The Remain vote is expected to do well cities & areas with university graduate populations.
Voting will be noted in Labour Party core strongholds in Northern England, the Midlands & South Wales.
Scotland will likely vote to Remain.
Voting in Northern Ireland may likely go along Nationalist/Unionist lines.
Key areas in the 2015 General Election such as Swindon & Nuneaton will be closely watched.
Overall turnout will play a much larger role than in the General Election…
i) Sub 50% - 65% is widely seen as being in favour of the Leave campaign.
ii) 65% - 85% is widely seen as being in favour of the Remain campaign.
iii) 85%+ is widely seen as being in favour of the Leave campaign.
Turnout in the cities & towns will be closely watched as these are seen to favour the Remain campaign.
Allegedly a Sky News opinion poll expected between 22.00 – 22.30 (probably around 22.18) will be seen as a strong guide to the outcome. This is not an ‘exit poll’ but nevertheless an opinion poll of voting intentions on the day itself.
Private, paid ‘exit’ polls by insurance companies, political parties, trade unions, pension funds and especially hedge funds will be racing to deliver results to their employers as swiftly as possible, particularly before an alleged Sky News opinion poll. This may cause volatility in GBP markets without any obvious cause throughout the night.
Up to 20% of votes may be postal votes.
KEY AREAS TO WATCH…AND EXPECTED TIMES & POSSIBLE INTENTIONS…
Sunderland (Leave) - 00.30. Widely expected to be the first to declare. Approximately 200,000 eligible voters.
Wandsworth (Remain) - 00.30
City of London (Remain) - 00.30. Most pro Remain area in the country but with only about 7,000 eligible voters.
Swindon (Leave & bellwether) - 01.00
Oldham (Leave) - 01.00
Gibraltar (Remain) - 01.00. British Territory but adjacent to Spain and within the EU. It has about 20,000 eligible voters.
Belfast (Remain) - 01.15 – 01.30. Approximately 250,000 eligible voters.
Wigan (Leave) - 01.30
Stirling (Remain) - 01.30
Merthyr Tydfil (Remain) - 01.30
Denbighshire (Remain) - 01.45
Nuneaton & Bedsworth (bellwether) - 02.00
Basildon (Leave & bellwether) - 02.00
Neath Port Talbot (Remain) - 02.00
South Norfolk (Remain) - 02.00
Barking & Dagenham (Remain) - 02.30
Harlow (Leave) - 02.30
West Oxfordshire (Remain) - 03.00
Dumfries & Galloway (Remain) - 03.30
Cheltenham (Remain) - 03.30
Birmingham (Remain) - 04.00. The largest single area with about 700,000 eligible voters.
Harrogate (Remain) - 04.00
It is expected that the majority of regional results will be declared between 03.00 – 04.00.
Anticipation of a fuller clear result is expected around 05.00.
Final results of the UK’s EU Referendum will be declared later in the day at Manchester Town Hall.
STRONGEST LEAVE AREAS
Eastern (Fenland, Castle Point, Great Yarmouth, Tendring, Forest Heath, Thurrock).
East Midlands (Boston, South Holland).
South Eastern (Gravesham, Thanet).
None of these areas are within the top 100 areas with regard to size of electorate.
STRONGEST REMAIN AREAS
London (Camden, Southwark, Hackney, Lambeth, Islington, City of London).
Scotland (Glasgow City, Edinburgh).
South Eastern (Oxford).
All the above areas are within the top 100 areas with regard to size of electorate except Oxford, Cambridge & the City of London.
It is important to note that the UK EU Referendum result IS NOT LEGALLY BINDING!
The UK Parliament still has to ratify the process and pass the EU Referendum result into law…this is where it gets interesting…
Approximately 70% of the MPs of the House of Commons wish to Remain & some may institute obstructions if the result is to Leave. Additionally, the House of Lords has to also ratify the result though they will only ultimately have ‘delaying’ powers.
…AND WHAT ELSE????
Two further items to bear in mind…
1) Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne (the Finance Minister in the Government) when asked would he consider closing the GBP markets (stock, fixed income [Gilts], GBP FX markets, insurance & other GBP related markets…) said he could not rule that out. He obviously would say that but it is worth remembering that HM Treasury (the Finance ministry), the FCA & PRA (regulators) and the Bank of England will have made plans in case of severe DMC which will no doubt be up to & including a market/bank holiday in case it is necessary.
2) Many banks & some FX brokers are now refusing to accept ‘stop’ orders in GBPUSD & GBP crosses…even via ‘voice’ rather than electronically…and in some cases not even accepting those by ‘voice’. I feel obliged to point out that in severe DMCs we may also likely have to undertake similar measures and maybe only able to quote on a ‘not held’ basis.
…and after ALL this….well….that will be the start of a whole new series of emails…
I hope the above & below helps you in your decision making processes and in your timings. I am of course more than happy to help& answer any questions you may have. As I have previously mentioned, I will be covering the event at our 24 Hour FX Desk from early evening on Thursday the 23rd until lunchtime Friday on the 24th.
All the best
Head of Foreign Exchange
ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Telephone +44 20 7716 8201 24 Hour Telephone number +44 20 7390 2952 @EddieTofpik
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