Monday October 17, 2005 - 20:56:31 GMT
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Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz
Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning ReportNew Zealand Dollar: Q3 CPI reinforces case for OCR hike
The NZD again took centre stage during the Australasian time zone yesterday with the release of Q3 inflation data. While a CPI increase of 1.1% was slightly below expectations, the annualised rate of 3.4% is beyond the RBNZ's 1-3% target range. With petrol prices and housing related gains being the main contributors, the case for a hike in the OCR has been further reinforced. Overnight, USD buying re-emerged as news surfaced that Tropical Storm Wilma had been upgraded to hurricane status and could target the Gulf of Mexico before the weekend. The NZD reversed from highs of 0.6994, as a result to trade 0.6948 before recovering to 0.6960, from where the market opens this morning. It should be noted that the NZD remains dominant on the crosses. Month-to-date Eurobond and Uridashi issue is approaching NZD2.5bn and with this NZD/JPY and NZD/EUR are seen at 80.00 and 0.5785 respectively.
Australian Dollar: AUD softer on hurricane fears
The AUD also made modest gains during the domestic session yesterday. From opening levels at 0.7520, USD selling saw the AUD strengthen to an intraday high of 0.7548. Despite continued strength in base metals, especially zinc, aluminium and copper, the currency lost ground overnight, as renewed hurricane concerns pushed oil prices and the USD higher. AUD/USD softened from a 0.7540 overnight high to 0.7483, before recovering to 0.7490, from where we open this morning.
Major Currencies: Dollar up in quiet trade, yen under pressure
Ze The dollar strengthened broadly with a lack of fresh economic news prompting short-term traders to buy the USD back at cheaper levels following its slide last week. Intra-day trade saw the euro drop as low as 1.2012 before running into solid support around the psychological 1.2000 level. Versus the yen, the USD climbed to a session high of 114.92 from around 113.95 yesterday afternoon with the yen facing selling pressure from Japanese investors who are continuing to pour money into higher yielding foreign assets.
Bank of Japan minutes: no material changes.
jThe minutes showed that the consensus on the board is to wait and see on consumer prices, rather than pre-emptively beginning to wind back liquidity before the event. The two dissenters maintained their line without adding any new elements to the debate. Our modelling work shows that the current level of QE is worth around 1% off interest rates. Therefore the headwind for activity that its unwinding will create should not be under-estimated.
US NY Fed survey falls from 15.6 to 12.1 in Oct.
The further slippage in the NY Fed survey in October was unexpected. We had thought that the NY Fed survey would reflect the turnaround manufacturing sentiment revealed in the last national ISM survey. But the headline NY Fed question on business conditions certainly didn't, perhaps in part because NY-based manufacturers don't expect to benefit as much from Gulf Coast reconstruction as other firms around the country. That said, some of the detail in the survey was quite robust. New orders jumped 13 pts; that component and shipments both printed in the mid 20s, indicating that actual activity levels in the month grew quite smartly. Jobs growth slipped a little however, while price pressures remained elevated.
Bank of England personnel change.
Sir Andrew Large, the hawkish deputy governor who has dissented in favour of higher rates on four occasions this year so far, will attend his last monetary policy committee meeting in January 2006. He wants to return to the private sector. The Treasury has said he will be replaced by John Gieve, a Treasury official of unknown policy persuasion.
Country Release Last Forecast
Aus Q3 NAB Business Survey
US Sep Producer Price Index/Core 0.6%/flat 1.1%/0.4%
Aug Net Security Purchases USDbn 87.4 n/f
Oct NAHB Housing Market Index 65 66
Fedspeak: Greenspan, Yellen
Eur Sep CPI/Core (F) %yr 2.5%a/1.3% 2.5%/1.5%
Ger Oct ZEW Survey 38.6 45.0
UK Sep CPI %yr 2.4% 2.6%
Can Sep Leading Index 0.3% 0.3%
BoC Rate Decision 2.75% 3.0%
Latest Research papers/Publication
NZ Q3 CPI Review (17 October)
NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (17 October)
NZ Weekly Interest Rate Wrap-up (17 October)
OCR hike implicitly endorsed (14 October)
NZ Q3 CPI Preview (12 October)
NZ Q3 QSBO Review and OCR Outlook (11 October)
NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (10 October)
NZ Weekly Interest Rate Wrap-up (10 October)
NZ Q3 Employment Confidence Index (5 October)
These papers/publications are available on Online Research on
Westpac Institutional Banks website (www.wib.westpac.co.nz)
Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 24 May 2005. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.
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