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Tuesday October 18, 2005 - 12:45:19 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 18-10-05 ..... 1205 GMT


Euro @ 1.1946/49....Crucial Support above 1.1863
-------------------------------------------------
R: 1.1989 / 1.2012-28-39 / 1.2055
S: 1.1932-16 / 1.1878-63 / 1.1826
Range Support between 1.1932-16 and then all-important Bear SHS Neckline Support at 1.1878. These may/ may not break today. If they hold, the Euro would have chances of moving back up towards 1.2050. If and when these Supports break, however, we could start looking for 1.1430 initially and then towards 1.10 over the course of time. Buying a Euro Put and selling a Euro Call to part-finance it would not be a bad idea, if you are a long-term player.

Our Short at 1.2060 saw profit at 1.1973 and we square at the moment.


$-Yen @ 115.74/78....Buying more
-----------------------------------------------
R: 116.10 / 116.40 / 118.41
S: 115.51 / 115.10 / 114.94
Dollar-Yen seems to have finally broken on the upside. It now has solid-crucial Support at 114.45-55 being both the 38.2% retracement of the fall from 135.15 to 101.67 AND the 200-MA on the Weekly chart. There's some minor Resistance at 116.10 for today. But while the market stays above 115.10 now, we should be looking for 116.40 and even higher. The 50% Fibo retracement of the 135.15-101.67 fall comes in at 118.41, so that's a target over the next few weeks. And then 120 cannot be ruled out either. In fact, one should be prepared for it.

Trade:
Buy $25K at current level, SL 115.30, TP 116.30

Holding:
$25K Long at 115.39, SL 114.80, TP open

Order:
Buy $25K at 114.95, SL 114.50, TP open


Euro-Yen @ 138.28/33....Holding ambitious Long
-----------------------------------------------
R: 138.61-68 / 138.82
S: 138.21-07 / 137.89
The Cross has indeed found Resistance near 138.64 and has dropped back from there. Crucial Support between 138.07 and 137.89. If these are broken, then the Cross might fall towards 137.00 in a couple of days. But, if it manages to remain above 138.07 today, it would try to climb past 138.64 again over today-tomorrow. A successful break on the upside could take the Cross up towards 139 and 140 over time.

Holding:
EUR 20K Long at 138.10, SL 138.10, TP open


$-Swiss @ 1.3020/25....Sell some
--------------------------------
R: 1.3037-55 / 1.3076-86 / 1.3127
S: 1.2990 / 1.2959
Dollar-Swiss is still firmly ranged between 1.3055 and 1.2740 and we would like to sell now, with appropriate Stop Loss.

Trade:
Sell $25K at current level, SL 1.3065, TP open


Cable @ 1.7443/48....Still looking to sell rally
----------------------------------------------
R: 1.7486-1.7500 / 1.7536-48
S: 1.7437 / 1.7412-1.7392 / 1.7335
The Cable has fallen below 1.7450 to 1.7432 and is now seen bouncing from there. Resistance at 1.7486-1.7500. If it breaks, we may see 1.7550 again. While it remains below 1.7550, the overall pressure would be on the down side. This could leave sufficient scope for a test of 1.7400 by tomorrow.

Order:
Sell GBP 15K at 1.7545, SL 1.7555, TP 1.7435.


Aussie @ 0.7456/61....Sell below 0.7440
---------------------------------------
R: 0.7492-0.7506 / 0.7520-26 / 0.7541-69
S: 0.7450-42 / 0.7408-0.7393
The pair seems to be finding some support at 0.7460-50 from the last few hours. Intraday resistances are seen at 0.7493-0.7507. Any bounce to these resistances may invite sellers again. While it remains below the resistances the support at 0.7450 might be vulnerable to break. If so, we expect to see it fall to 0.7400 and later to 0.7350 over the next few days to come. In case it bounces back above 0.7507, which looks possible as of now, may see it rally to 0.7551. For today we prefer to sell below 0.7450.

Order:
Sell AUD 30K at 0.7425, SL 0.7460, TP 0.7350.




Happy Trading!

 

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