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Friday July 15, 2016 - 22:38:00 GMT
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U.K. Political Clarity And PM Abe Gets A Mandate

John M. Bland, MBA

Theresa May New Prime Minister
Major market developments in the latest week were mostly political with PM contender Andrea Leadsom unexpectedly stepping down from the two person run off for Conservative Party Leader, and therefore Prime Minister at the start of the latest week. Her decision to drop out of the race saw the favored Theresa May quickly named PM by Wednesday ending what was expected to be a selection process drawn out until early September. May surprised many when she replaced a number of Cameron appointees and appointed a number of pr-Brexit ministers, including Boris Johnson as Foreign Minister. Boris Johnson had been seen as a probable candidate for PM and was also the most prominent Brexit supporter. PM May clearly has wisely seen the handwriting on the wall. On Thursday, the BOE surprised the markets by holding key interest rates steady. Markets had been thinking that BOE Chief Carney had been signaling a rate cut just after the Brexit vote. The GBP rallied on this surprise decision.

Economic Stimulus Mandate For Japan PM Abe
In parliamentary elections over the past weekend, Japanese PM Abe was given a political mandate to take strong actions to stimulate the flagging economy. The Japanese economy has been in a funk for the past several decades and not responding to repeated rounds on quantitative ease (QE) or fiscal stimulus. PM Abe has promised to take strong fiscal stimulus actions after his election victory and met with former Fed Chief Ben Bernanke in the latest week. We have heard that the Bernanke plan for Japan would be for the BOJ to buy perpetual bonds directly from the government to finance a fiscal stimulus plan. It is logical they would probably carry a zero interest rate and the principal would only be paid at maturity. The point is the government would be given money to spend that would never impact its budget. It would have no interest nor principal payments to worry about. The BOJ would keep the bonds as capital. This scheme can only work in a deflationary world. The JPY weakened on this story. A key development over the past week was the narrowing of the number of candidates to be the next U.K. Prime Minister to two. It was the 330 Conservative MPs who winnowed the field down, but it wil be the 150,000 members of the Conservative Party who will decide between Theresa May and Andrea Leadsom for who will be selected. May was a pro-Stay supporter in the Brexit vote, while Leadsom was pro-Leave. the majority of Conservative MPs were pro-stay, so this could shape up to be a second Brexit vote. Brexit is the gift that keeps on giving.

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

19-Jul TUESDAY
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
20-Jul WEDNESDAY
08:30 GB- Employment
14:30 US- Weekly Crude
21-Jul THURSDAY
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
11:45 EZ- ECB decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
22-Jul FRIDAY
All Day- Flash PMIs
12:30 CA- Retail Sales
12:30 CA- CPI

Be sure to refer daily Global-View to see the continuously UPDATED Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.


John M. Bland
co-founder
www.global-view.com

 

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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