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Friday October 21, 2005 - 12:12:29 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day -

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Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 21-10-05 ..... 1207 GMT

Euro @ 1.2003/6....Range 1.1965-2080
R: 1.2030-45 / 1.2080 / 1.2115-24
S: 1.1997-93 / 1.1976-69
The Euro has chosen to drop back from the morning high of 1.2080. The outlook is totally hazy now with the market ranged between 1.1965-2080 (immediate) and 1.1873-2131 (outer range) for another week or so. Either you are good at trading within a range. Then you can make money in the current environment. Or you stay out. We choose the latter option.

$-Yen @ 115.58/62....Range 115-116
R: 115.52-55 / 115.73-81 / 116.00
S: 115.09-114.95 / 114.59-45
Finding Support above 115.00 so far today. Might remain within 115-116 for another couple of days. In case of a fall below 114.94, the market may test 114.59-45 next week. On the 4-hour chart, there's a minor bear trend, with Resistance at 115.55 and a possible target of 114.95 if the bear channel holds. But, we may see 116.00 in case of a rise above 115.55. Basically boild down to a 115-116 range for now. No trades

Euro-Yen @ 138.76/81.....Increased suspense
R: 138.92-139.12 / 139.26-48
S: 138.59-36 / 138.22-08 / 137.66
The Cross has been unable to rise past 139.30 so far and has dipped to 138.58 during the day. A further dip to Uptrend Channel Support near 138.25-00 is possible on the Daily Candles. Such a dip would only serve to increase the suspense as to the eventual direction the Cross will take - whether up towards 140 or down towards 137 and lower.

$-Swiss @ 1.2876/81.....Range 1.2777-2980
R: 1.2892 / 1.2919 / 1.2950 / 1.2981
S: 1.2825 / 1.2806 / 1.2777
The charts now look totally confused/ ranged between 1.2777-2981 for today at least, and possibly for Monday also. The Brave can take a Long here with Stop below 1.2770, and a 70-100 point TP, but we prefer to stay out.

Cable @ 1.7738/43....Holding cautious Long
R: 1.7801-16 / 1.7864-71
S: 1.7722 / 1.7688-80 / 1.7663-42
Trading up and down between 1.7720-7800 so far today. This range has to break eventually. As a result, the Cable may either climb to 1.7860 or fall towards 1.7680 either today or on Monday. Technically, the Cable is in Bull territory, but the market has been treacherous lately. We are holding Long, but shall narrow down our Stop Loss.

GBP 15K Long at 1.7756, SL 1.7710 (up from 1.7685), TP 1.7780.

Aussie @ 0.7501/06.....Bearish. Resistance at 0.7557
R: 0.7530-46 / 0.7555-77 / 0.7607-11
S: 0.7484 / 0.7451-37 / 0.7400
The Aussie has remained bearish under the resistances at 0.7540-60 so far today. This may cause a fall further to the support at 0.7484 later today. A break below this support could lead a subsequent fall to 0.7430 and 0.7400 in the next week. With the pair unable to sustain its rise (of the last two days), we are now skeptical of a rally. On an intraday basis, even if it bounces back, it could still invite selling.

The pair might turn extremely bullish after it rises above 0.7560 resistance.

As luck would have it, our Sell Order at 0.7540 was missed by a few pips. This has happened for the third or fourth time this month. And some say that Luck has nothing to do with trading!

Happy Trading!


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