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Tuesday October 25, 2005 - 12:26:40 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 25-10-05 ..... 1225 GMT

FX Thoughts - Evening - 25/10/05
Evening Edition
1740 IST or 1210 GMT or 0810 EST

Euro @ 1.2020/23....Resistance at 1.2050
-------------------------------------------
R: 1.2030-49 / 1.2082 / 1.2113-22
S: 1.2020-04 / 1.1979-61 / 1.1929
Has risen above the 1.2010 range resistance mentioned in the morning.
Further Resistance at 1.2050, being the statistically projected Max High
for the day. Would like to see a Day Close above 1.2070 at least in order
to become bullish. Shall refrain from trading one more day today and get
into the market tomorrow. Hopefully the direction will be clearer by
then.



$-Yen @ 115.44/48....Range 115.10-116.10
----------------------------------------------
R: 115.51-66 / 116.00-09 / 116.46
S: 115.10 / 114.90 / 114.39
For now, expect the market to continue to range between 115.10-116.10.
Important Support at 114.90. Not expecting that to break, but look for
114.39 in case it does break.

Orders:
Buy $25K at 115.22, SL 114.81, TP 115.82
Sell $25K at 115.92, SL 116.32, TP 115.52



Euro-Yen @ 138.79/84.....Sharp rise
----------------------------------
R: 139.02-17 / 139.59 / 139.82
S: 138.75 / 138.45-25 / 138.05
The Cross has risen strongly today. If it retains its gains today, then it
might mean its finally broken on the upside and we could then aim for 140
and higher. An inability to rise past 139.17 (high on Friday) would be
disappointing and might suggest a fall back towards 138.50.

As it turns out, we sold our Long (138.25) very cheaply at 138.45. Waiting
tonight now.



$-Swiss @ 1.2842/47....Range 1.2800-3050
-----------------------------------------
R: 1.2856-62 / 1.2900 / 1.2940
S: 1.2799-94 / 1.2761-51 / 1.2698-84
We've gone Long at 1.2845 on the assumption/ bet that the market is
essentially ranged between 1.2800-3050. If our reading be wrong, then we
may see Dollar-Swiss fall towards 1.27 and 1.26 over the next few days/
couple of weeks. If we are correct and the market remains above 1.2800, we
may see some profit.

Holding:
$25K Long at 1.2845, SL 1.2790, TP 1.2920



Cable @ 1.7759/64....Ranged between 1.75-1.78
---------------------------------------------
R: 1.7800 / 1.7830 / 1.7865
S: 1.7732 / 1.7690 / 1.7634
Still believe that the Cable is ranged between 1.75 on the downside and
1.78 on the upside. Good Resistance on the Weekly chart in the 1.7830-65
region should also be noted. If someone wants to, a Short can be taken
here with SL at 1.7875. We are already Long on Dollar-Swiss based on the
"range trade" theory and that is why we shall not take a Short in Cable.

In case the Cable does rise past 1.7865, then levels of 1.80 and above
would come into focus.



Aussie @ 0.7520/5....Bearish, but square
----------------------------------------
R: 0.7550 / 0.7566
S: 0.7521 / 0.7506-7497
The Aussie has risen to 0.7535 and our Short at 0.7514 has been stopped
out at 0.7550. This suggests that the Aussie is not AS bearish as we'd
thought (or wanted) it to be and might be ranged between 0.7475-7550 for a
while. Overall, though, the charts remain bearish and Longs might not be
justified while the market remains below 0.7550-75.


HAPPY TRADING!


 

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