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Friday October 7, 2016 - 20:25:18 GMT
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September U.S. Jobs Data Disappoint

John M. Bland, MBA

Lacklustre U.S. Jobs Data
The September U.S. Jobs data missed street expectations. The data were softer, but they were not a disaster. Non Farm payrolls increased by +156K in the month but fell short of expectations for a gain of 175K. Those citing the upward revision to the August data could be losing sight of the fact that August was also a miss. the rebound in Average Hourly Earnings got it back to where it has been for a couple of years. The unemployment rate at 5.00% is well above where it was in June (4.70%). Recall this is a cautious Fed. There is a chance it could still could plow ahead with a rate hike in December, but we will need a strong November number first.

Late Thursday (early Far East) trading saw a nasty "flash crash" in the GBP. Some are blaming "Brexit", others suggest it was an option related trade. However, the root problem clearly was the growing lack of liquidity in a quiet market where institutional participation has been curtailed due to regulatory activity.

On Tuesday there was a press report carried by AFP, which said that the European Central Bank (ECB) was considering a tapering of Quantitative Ease (QE) by EUR 10bln per month. I reported the information but frankly did not believe the central bank was even close to such a decision. Then on Thursday, ECB VP Constancio (Portugal) said the report that ECB was near tapering its QE is wrong. He said QE would continue until inflation is back on target. Some say the central bank will mot even consider a QE taper until late 2017.

Current Market Conditions
Markets had been on edge heading into the September Jobs report, but were expecting strong data to solidify the case for a policy tightening in December. As a result the markets were positioned long dollars into the release. However, once again the bull USD scenario proved to be the risky one, with stops above the market triggered after the release. The GBP "flash crash" was upsetting for many because it came completely out of the blue and for no good reason. Many fear that sooner or later they could get caught in liquidity gap themselves, and that has some worried because illiquidity itself can breed more illiquidity.


WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
9-Oct Sun
21:00 US- Presidential Debate
10-Oct Mon
00:00 JP/CA/US (partial) Holiday
11-Oct Tue
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
12-Oct Wed
18:00 US- Fed Minutes
13-Oct Thu
11:00 GB- BOE Decison
15:00 US- EIA Crude
14-Oct Fri
12:30 US- PPI
12:30 US- Retail Sales
14:00 US- prelim Univ of Mich

Be sure to refer daily Global-View to see the continuously UPDATED Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.


John M. Bland
co-founder
www.global-view.com

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 08:00 GMT DE- IFO Survey. Top German indicator.


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John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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