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Wednesday October 26, 2005 - 11:52:06 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange - https://fx.mellon.com/

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• EUR-USD gives up early European gains – needs to hold 1.2050.
• Australian CPI remains subdued, Japanese export strength continues.
• RBNZ rate announcement features today.

Market Outlook

Encouraged by the positive price action of yesterday, EUR-USD broke higher early in European trading, moving above the 1.2120 high from last week. However, the move was reversed very quickly and the EUR has been on the defensive ever since. There remains a lot of uncertainty about near-term direction and by bolstering the EUR side of the interest rate equation, yesterday’s IFO has complicated things further. US rate hike prospects remain more genuine than those in the Eurozone and to this extent it would be wrong to write the USD off just yet. However, momentum has faded a little and there is still a chance of EUR-USD approaching 1.2203 (Oct 7 high) as long as 1.2050 can hold early today.

Japanese trade data showed the surplus continuing to narrow on a y/y basis, although the seasonally adjusted surplus was only modestly lower than that seen the previous month. Rising imports (related to high energy prices) continue to weigh on the surplus overall, but the continuing strength of exports (seechart) is encouraging and suggests that the Japanese economy is currently being well supported by global demand.

Australian CPI was reasonably subdued, with the multitude of core inflation measures suggesting no great acceleration in underlying price pressures. This also includes the RBA’s ‘weighted median’ and ‘trimmed mean’ measures of CPI – the y/y rates for both these measures were unchanged from Q2. The data is not enough to trigger fresh RBA tightening speculation, although the AUD has been reasonably well supported anyway overnight. General USD direction will influence the AUD today.

Day Ahead
New Zealand – the RBNZ rate announcement is due this evening and after recent strength in retail sales data and some slightly hawkish comments on October 14 from RBNZ governor Bollard, the market is discounting a 25bp rate hike. This consensus itself increases the likelihood of it happening, but it is not a done deal. In the statements made since the last hike in March, the RBNZ has consistently made the point that further hikes were possible, but also suggested that growth appeared to be slowing. Market reaction will be driven by the rate decision and what the RBNZ signal about the future. The NZD is currently facing up to stiff resistance at 0.7100-25

Diary
Data/event EDT Consensus*

NO Norges Bank’s Gjedrem spks 09.35
NZ RBNZ rate announcement 16.00 7.0%
JP Retail sales (Sep) y/y 19.50 +1.5%

Latest data Actual Consensus*
US ABC consumer conf (w/e Oct 23) -19 -17 last
JP Trade balance (Sep, sa) ¥556bn ¥526bn
JP CSPI (Sep) y/y -0.6% -0.7%
AU CPI (Q3) q/q +0.9% +1.1%
AU CPI market prices (Q3) q/q +0.6% +0.6%
AU CPI market prices (Q3) y/y +2.0% +2.0%
IT Business confidence (Oct) 89.5 89.8
ZA CPI (Sep) y/y +4.4% +4.4%
ZA CPIX (Sep) y/y +4.7% +4.9%
GB CBI orders balance (Oct) -25 -25
* Consensus unless stated
EDT Wednesday October
2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

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12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
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Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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