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Friday October 28, 2016 - 22:37:15 GMT
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Sterling Back Center-Stage

John M. Bland, MBA

U.K. Developments
Developments in the U.K. have continued to dominate trade in the latest week. A major event was House of Lords Economic Committee testimony Tuesday by Bank of England Governor Carney, who did not send the signal for a rate cut that many in the markets had been hoping for. His comments implied that an early rate cut is improbable in light of the GBP slide after the Brexit vote. He said there were limits to the central bank's ability to overlook the effect of the steep slide, about 18% since the Brexit, on inflation, and it would undoubtedly take it into account at its rate-setting meeting in the week ahead. Then on Thursday, it was reported that the initial reading on 3Q16 GDP shored an advance of 0.50% which beat street estimates for 0.3%. Yr/Yr GDP grew by 2.30% vs. 2.10% forecast. This was the first full reporting period following the the U.K. vote to leave the EU. The expansion in the economy was led by the services sector, which grew by 0.8%. The data saw the yield on the 10-yr gilt jump to 1.26% from 1.09% at last Friday's close. Sentiment about the British economy appears to be changing.

Changes in fixed income market sentiment is not confined to the U.K. Markets continue to try to reconcile the prospects for a Fed policy tightening in December with Chair Yellen's new notion of a high-pressure economy. I feel the central bank is planning to hike rates once in December before putting policy on hold for the better part of 2017. Fed Funds futures have zeroed in on roughly 70% odds (69%) on a December rate hike. It looks to me like the hawks and doves might have reached a compromise. The hawks are being granted a token December rate hike in return for the doves getting a steady monetary policy next year. Of course this "bargain" is contingent on how the economy performs over the period.

Lastly, 10-year bund yields might be finding a bottom on the belief that both the European Central Bank will hold off on further easing. While the market believes the European Central Bank will extend its asset buying beyond its March deadline, the expectation is that in December it will slow the pace of its bond purchases (QE). This realization hit the markets at about the same time as the U.K. items and saw the yiel on the 10-yr bund rise to a "lofty" 0.18% from 0.05% a week ago. Again how this evolves will be data dependent.

Weekly Calendar
As can be seen below, the week ahead will be very active with several key central bank meetings scheduled along with final globa PMI readings for October. The RBA, BOJ, BOE and Fed are all epected to keep key rates steady. the major focus will be on their policy statements.



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WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
30-Oct Sun
00:00 EZ/GB Clocks turn back one hour 31-Oct Mon
06:00 DE- Retail Sales
09:00 EZ- GDP
09:30 EZ- flash HICP
12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator
1-Nov Tue
All Day EZ- Holidays
All Day final Mfg PMIs
03:00 AU- RBA Decision
2-Nov Wed
All-Day Mfg PMIs
03:00 JP- Bank of Japan Decision
7:55 DE- Employment
12:15 US- ADP Private Employment
14:30 US- EIA Crude
18:00 US- FOMC Decision
3-Nov Thu
00:00 JP- Holiday
All Day Service PMIs
11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:30 US- Productivity
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
4-Nov Fri
All Day Service PMIs
12:30 US- Jobs/Trade
12:30 CA- Jobs/Trade

Be sure to refer daily Global-View to see the continuously UPDATED Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.


John M. Bland
co-founder
www.global-view.com

 

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Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Trading Ideas for 23 October 2017

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- All Day Global flash PMIs. First good look at October economic performances.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 01:30 GMT AU- CPI. Top Inflation indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 08:00 GMT DE- IFO Survey. Top German indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 14:00 GMT CA- BOC Decision. No Policy Change Expected.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top Weekly WTI Statistic.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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