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Thursday October 27, 2005 - 00:23:33 GMT
Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz

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Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report

New Zealand Dollar: NZD steady ahead of OCR announcement
Yesterday's NBNZ business outlook survey revealed weaker activity across most of its components, however this had no effect on the market and a quiet domestic session was experienced with the NZD hovering near a 6-week high of 0.7072. The currency did sell off to a low of 0.7013 overnight, but managed to hold its recent range ahead of this morning's Reserve Bank OCR announcement. The RBNZ is widely expected to raise rates by 25bps to 7.00%.

Australian Dollar: AUD softens after CPI data
The AUD was bought ahead of the Q3 CPI release, fell after the softer than expected outcome to a low of 0.7532. The 0.9%q/q rise in the CPI was shy of market forecasts of a 1.1% gain. Nevertheless, the annual rate rose to the top of the RBA target range at 3.0% (from 2.5% previously) and suggests that the RBA will hold rates steady in the immediate future.

Major Currencies: Dollar recovers, helped by higher Treasury yields
The USD partially recovered from the previous day's fall helped by higher US Treasury bond yields, though the possibility of a ECB rate rise limited the dollar's gains against the euro. The dollar also found support from inflows by US companies repatriating funds to take advantage of this year's one-off tax break. The yen weakened after a Japanese government report showed the country's trade surplus shrank for the sixth consecutive month in September. This morning the dollar was trading around JPY 115.80 up from a session low of 114.91. The euro, which traders said was broadly supported by strong buying against the yen, opens around 1.2073, after hitting a 2-week high of 1.2137 earlier.

Japan Sep trade surplus narrowed. The jump in energy prices was a major factor. The surplus narrowed from ₯615bn in August to ₯556bn in September. Exports were down 0.3% and imports rose 0.8%. The respective annual rates are 8.8% and 17.4%.

Japan corporate services prices rose 0.3% in Sep. That pushes the annual rate to -0.6%, from -0.8% in August. The in month rise was driven by a few lumpy moves, with oceanmshipping and broadcast advertising prominent.

No US data to report.

UK CBI industrial trends survey disappoints. Although there was a modest rise in total orders, output volume and exports both softened in October, in contrast to the more up-beat manufacturing PMI. Also, the quarterly survey showed business optimism deteriorating sharply between July and October.

Events Today
Country Release Last Forecast
NZ RBNZ OCR Review 6.75% 7.00%
US Sep Durable Goods Orders 3.4% -2.5%
Initial Jobless Claims w/e 22/10 355k 340k
Sep Help Wanted Index 35 36
Sep New Home Sales -9.9% 4.0%
Jpn Sep Retail Trade %yr 1.6% n/f
UK Sep BBA Mortgage Data
Can Oct Business Conditions Orders -10 n/f

Latest Research papers/Publication
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (25 October)
• NZ Weekly Interest Rate Wrap-up (25 October)
• RBNZ October OCR Preview (19 October)
• NZ Economic Overview October 2005 (18 October)
• NZ Q3 CPI Review (17 October)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (17 October)
• NZ Weekly Interest Rate Wrap-up (17 October)
These papers/publications are available on Online Research on
Westpac Institutional Bank’s website (www.wib.westpac.co.nz)

Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 24 May 2005. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.

 

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