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Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 31st October 2005

Price: 115.66

Resistance: 115.85 ... 116.09 ... 116.50 ... 116.77
Support....: 115.08 ... 114.84 ... 114.59 ... 114.27

Bias: Mixed - watch for breaks of 115.85-93 or 115.08 to provide an additional 50-70 points

Bullish: The 115.10 support held well on Friday although the rally from there has not been as strong as expected. There is a range of resistance levels between 115.72 and 116.09 although we mostly feel the 115.85-93 area has most attraction and it is above here that we feel will spark any further attempt higher. However, even then the 116.50 level is also quite strong and at the moment we do not see this breaking. Thus only above 116.50 will provoke follow-through to 117.10 at least. Further resistance is at 117.49 and 117.94.

Bearish: Although the 115.10 area held well on Friday, the lack of significant upside is possibly more suggestive of a sideways consolidation. We see resistance in the 115.72-93 area and while this holds we feel a pullback towards 115.00-10 once again. However, only below 115.00 and preferably the 114.84 corrective low would keep the downside intact and imply losses to 114.27 at least - which should hold if seen. Next support is at 113.80 and 113.18.



Elliott Wave Comments:

31st October 2005

We still remain with the 115.97 high being the daily Wave [iii] peak having risen from the 114.18 Wave [ii] low. This would normally mean at least a 23.6% - 38.2% correction but the blip higher to 116.23 has made this look more like an expanded flat although Friday failed to take advantage of Dollar strength seen against the European currencies to take price to the ideal 116.50 Wave -b- target. We could then suggest that we are seeing an irregular triangle though this would mean that after a small pullback to 115.00-10 that we see the beginning of Wave [v].

This all looks quite unusual and leaves us with considerable doubts. Thus we need be more cautious and consider that the possibility that the 116.23 high was the end of Wave [iii]. (This also represents a 61.8% projection from the 108.75 corrective low) If this is correct, then we should expect to see the 115.72-116.09 area cap from where a stronger decline is possible and below 114.84-115.00 would imply deeper pullbacks to 113.38 at least and possibly as deep as 111.63.



(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005

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John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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