Friday June 25, 2004 - 02:10:29 GMT
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Daily Forecast for Euro vs US Dollar 25th June 2004Price 1.2170
Support:.... 1.2190 ... 1.2225 ... 1.2250 ... 1.2280
Resistance: 1.2155 ... 1.2130 ... 1.2115 ... 1.2095
Initially lower to 1.2115-30 but then to new highs
Recovery from 1.2039 brings a bullish look to price. First thing today should see a pullback but we look for this to be held by support between 1.2115-30 and a recovery from here should see further gains up to 1.2280-1.2320. Break of 1.2190 confirms.
The rally seen yesterday suggests the downside must wait. We feel that iniitial trading today could see a move down to 1.2115-30 but we look for this to hold (stops below 1.2090). Thus only below 1.2070-90 would see follow-through lower back towards 1.2040 and probably then stronger losses.
Elliott Wave Comments:
We have had to adjust our wave count here and provide two alternatives. The first is that the decline from 1.2350 to 1.1950-55 formed Wave (A) from where we are witnessing a rather choppy Wave (B) that would imply a move to 1.2190-00 in Wave c from Friday's low at 1.1973. This would imply wave equality of Wave a. However, that would imply the end of the correction higher and a direct resumption of the downtrend.
The other alternative which given the daily cycles have turned higher seems more likely is that the decline to 1.1950-55 in fact formed Wave [x] and we are now seeing Wave C of the next ABC structure. This would have targets above 1.2350 at least with likely stalling areas at 1.2456 and 1.2540.
Update June 24th
The peak at 1.2190 puts us on alert for a possible early break lower. A break of 1.1970-00 will confirm the downside. However, until then we could still count the move to 1.2190 as an expanded flat correction to the initial decline from 1.2147 to 1.2064. Thus hold back a bit and be aware of the implications of breaks levels described in today's analysis.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
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