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Friday June 25, 2004 - 10:59:19 GMT -

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Hypotenuse of the descending triangle serves to contain euro

Daily Forex Technical Report 6-25-2004

Swissie rests on neckline
Yen stalls near daily and monthly pivot
The Sterling trend "continuation" stalls at 100-day SMA

Technical Outlook

A second test followed by failure of the 1.2175 region for the EUR/USD has confirmed the descending triangle seen across various dollar pairs. In addition, the 100-day SMA has served to cap the bid and presently registers a 1.2190. The 38.2% retracement of 1.0800-1.2930 (1.2120) sets a boundary on the support side with the descending hypotenuse of the triangle creating resistance. 1.1975/2000 region serves as the base of the triangle (also the 200-day EMA) with the apex coming to fruition precisely June 30th. A break of the pattern would be noteworthy however and should give us an idea as to what the pair may do at the apex (June 30th).

The USD/JPY pressed lower on s of a stop order landslide coming to rest just above the monthly pivot of 106.90. Oscillators are fairly oversold across intra-day and daily time frames. The MACD histogram has begun to round off, but has yet to make a slope up to the zeroline. However, RSI (37.0) and the stochastic (5.31) have begun to advance. The 61.8% retracement of 103.45-115.00 (107.85) could slow things down on the bid side; a failure could clear the way up to the regression trendline lower band (108.60). The Daily R1 and R2 are indicative of 108.28 and 109.24 as pivotal trading levels.

GBP/USD remains heavy late in Asia trading. The 100-day SMA (1.8225) has served to mire the progress of the bulls thus far while the daily MACD histogram makes a slow drift below the zeroline. The 100-day EMA (1.8070/75) has been eyed as solid support with the monthly pivot coinciding with this particular level. A break below would all but confirm what we have been pining about all week, which is that the bid prowess the sterling had enjoyed has now evaporated; the daily ADX (common trend indicator) has also been indicative of this conclusion. The 38.2% retracement of 1.9125-1.7490 (1.8115) could stall the move to the downside.

The USD/CHF rests on the neckline as the pair hammers out a symmetrical triangle with a slight tilt to the descending side. The formation is a bit bemusing as the formation on the EUR/USD shows the contrary after its been inverted. As noted previously all this week, the pair continues to trade well below the 100 and 200-day MA's while other major dollar pairs' remain entrenched in these respective levels. Additionally, as our own proprietary S/R lines indicated, the 1.2591 level could provide solid near-term resistance. Intra-day pivot levels are indicative of S/R near 1.2553.

GBP/CHF daily

Comment from 06/08
After dropping to a low of 2.2495 on 5/14, GBPCHF rallied to a high of 2.3134 on 5/27, slightly above our 3070 target, giving aggressive bears a fresh opportunity to initiate shorts. After a brief period of consolidation, the outlook for GBPCHF has turned bearish once again, as the pair breaks below 2.2790/2840, the 50% fibo of the Oct-Mar bull wave / 38.2% retracement of the May - Mar bull wave and 23.6% fibo of the April - May bear wave. Bulls will find 2.2525/2.2600, the May 18 low / 61.8% retracement of the Oct-Mar rally / 6-month trendline support an attractive entry point. A sustained move below that level would then open the door to the wide 2.2200/2.2350 area where the 23.6% Fibo from the Nov - Mar bull wave is present. Above, aggressive bears will once again look to short towards 2.3000/3075, thanks to the 50-day EMA / 38.2% fibo of the Oct-Mar bull wave / 38.2% fibo of the Mar-May bear wave and the June 1, 3 and 4 highs. 3350/3400 will attract more conservative reversal players (61.8% Fibo from the Aug01 - 03 bear wave) while 3800/3880 is to keep in mind for the bearish crowd thanks to the 50% Fibo from the Nov 00 - 03 bear wave.

The failure at 3200 on 06/16 leaves the outlook neutral for the GBP/CHF The LT uptrend is still slightly bullish but the consistent failure to make new highs is worrisome for the bulls. 2420/80 will be the first serious S for Sterling thanks to a robust Fibo cluster (61.8% Fibo from the Aug - Mar bull wave & 50% Fibo from the May - Mar bull wave & 23.6% Fibo from the 00 - 03 bear wave). A sustained breakout below would open the door to 2250/2300 and the 23.6% Fibo from the Nov - Mar bull wave. Above the key R will be the obvious 3200/3300 area thanks to the High BB, 100 SMA and a robust Fibo confluence (23.6% Fibo from the May - Mar bull wave & 50% Fibo from the Mar - May bear wave). A breakout above would probably lead us to 3800/50 area.


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