Thursday November 3, 2005 - 14:27:23 GMT
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Global-View - www.global-view.com
GVI Monthly Survey of Forex Professionals
In the latest monthly sentiment survey of professional forex dealers by global-view.com, the leading forex discussion site, sentiment for the dollar turned more bearish against the euro. The three month ahead forecast for EURUSD was a mean 1.2143 from 1.1946 a month earlier. The EURUSD spot price at the mid-point (November 1 close) of when the survey was being conducted was 1.1997.
The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index (0-100 50=neutral) turned more bearish the EUR/USD despite the recent changes in the spot rate to 63 from 54 previously. The GVI-Cumino index uses a theoretical neutral option strategy to measure the intensity and direction of individual trader sentiment from price levels at the time when forecasts were made.
The USD/JPY mean dollar forecast improved to 113.00 from 112.40 one month ago.
The USD/JPY spot rate at the mid-point of when the survey was being conducted was 116.70. The GVI-Cumino dollar bull turned more bearish the dollar from the previous forecast. It was 26 from 35.
Traders expect the price of crude oil to close at $57.98 in three months time from the current spot vs. the previous $64.14 estimate.
In a special question, participants were asked when they felt the European Central Bank would raise interest rates. Twenty-six percent expected a move in 4Q05. Fifty percent expect a change in 1Q06, and the balance expected a hike following 1Q06.
For complete detailed survey results including history see:
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