Thursday November 3, 2005 - 14:37:19 GMT
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GVI Monthly Forex Survey Analysis Courtesy Cumino
Analysis courtesy Cumino:
GVI Forex Sentiment survey analysis:
The first number is the Bull Index (two weeks ago in brackets). The 3 following numbers are the components, in this order: strong bears, neutral, strong bulls (previous).
EURUSD 3 months: 1st day close 1.1997 (1.1915), av. responses 1.2143 (1.1946), Adjusted boundaries 1.16-1.24 (1.15-1.23).
GVI 63% (54%) COMPONENTS 19% 35% 46% (14% 63% 23%)
Extremely EUR bullish. BTW the most bullish ever seen the GVI survey history. EUR bull camp doubled from 23% to 46% mostly at neutrals expenses. Short term reading shows the same sentiment, but not so high and this is interesting. My earlier comments proved correct.
Note that EUR USD implied and actual vols (3m) barely moved during last month.
In the meantime both COT and margin positions aren’t extremely stretched, so you cannot expect about an induced contrarian behavior. Finally note that some medium-term trader surveys are quite similar.
On the whole the sentiment is more and more bullish than during July lows, without the same cushion from positions. Should EUR dip below 1.1870 the fall will be great.
USD JPY 3 months: 1st day close 116.67 (114.10), av. responses 113.00 (112.29), Adjusted boundaries 113-121 (110-118)
GVI: 23% (35%) COMPONENTS: 56% 42% 2% (40% 49% 11%)
Extremely USD bearish and again the most bearish ever seen. Only 2% seeing the USD above its high boundary. While this is understandable in technical terms, it is worth noting that a restricted limit of 118 shows only 4% seeing above this level. In other words, sentiment is one way. Vols are low, with actuals tumbling this month. Note EUR
JPY 3m implied at –2 in Z-Score terms.
Both COT and margin positions are stretched. Medium term surveys show meaningful differences between European, US, and Asian based traders.
OIL 3 months: 1st day close 60.35 (65.47), av. responses 58.18 (64.30), Adjusted boundaries 53-67 (58-72)
GVI: 45 (45%) COMPONENTS: 17% 76% 7% (18% 74% 8%)
Unchanged. Prices went lower 5 cents from previous Survey and more than 10 from the September highs, but Survey was pretty unchanged in the period. The short term reading is more bearish.
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