Tuesday January 24, 2017 - 12:54:19 GMT
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US, Russia, China and Trump's Weak US Dollar Policy?
Amongst the daily innuendos, rumours, fake news that make the market move daily here is one fact you can take to the bank in the medium and long term.
1. Putin wants higher priced crude to turn Russia economy around and prolong his stay.
2. Trump wants weaker USD to make American made goods more competitive.
3.China wants to keep Yuan under control and continue its progress of the last 8 years.
NET RESULT:Putin & Trump get what they want while China winds up isolated and having to pay more for crude from their largest supplier, Russia. China does not have a fixed price it pays for its crude from Russia apart from weekly forward /exchange contracts. This will continue until China finds its own energy to become sufficient. In between, USA /China relations deteriorate and an isolated China with a slowing economy starts to make concessions regarding its currency and Pacific expansion.
Currency Scenario : Medium to long term USD weakness causing a shift towards a " neutral" currency away from USA/RUSSIA/CHINA triangle. i.e. The euro is this currency despite its domestic problems .
_ Long Ruble against USD and other pacific rim currencies.
g.t to all.
The preceding was posted by a respected Global-View member on the Forex Forum
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