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Friday February 3, 2017 - 22:02:23 GMT
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January 2017 Employment Data Throw Markets A Curve

John M. Bland, MBA

Mixed Message For January U.S. Employment Figures The U.S. employment report for January threw the markets a curve on Friday. On the Wednesday prior to the report, the ADP private Jobs Survey indicated that the monthly employment survey could be a lot stronger than the market consensus. Earlier street estimates for non-farm payrolls had been for an increase of 175,000 in the month. As predicted by ADP, employment increased by 227,000 in the month. This is what those positioned for a strong report in the Fixed Income and Equity markets had equity markets had been hoping for. However, the fly in the ointment was a much weaker than expected Average Hourly Earnings report. Markets had been set up for an increase of 0.30% in the month, but only saw an increase of 0.10%. Furthermore, the December 0.40% increase was revised down to 0.30%. The significance of the report is that the Fed will be hard-pressed to justify a hike in rates in March if earnings remain depressed. An easier than expected Fed policy is often a USD negative.

Weak USD Forex Policy? Last week I apparently misread the signals from the new administration on Forex policy. I had thought their focus primarily was going to be a perceived undervaluation of currencies of low cost manufacturing economies such as the Chinese yuan and Mexican Peso. However, Forex traders got an unexpected surprise early Tuesday when Trump Administration trade advisor Peter Navarro was quoted in the Financial Times saying that Germany has been benefiting from a "gross undervaluation" of the EUR. Traders were unsure if this was a Trump administration policy statement or a new official speaking on his own. There was little doubt shortly thereafter when German Chancellor Merkel said that she did not want to influence the Euro exchange rate and that she has always called upon ECB to have independent policy. The news saw the EURUSD spike higher from just above the 1.0700 line to above 1.0800. The major news is that it appears that the Trump administration will be pursuing a weak dollar policy, assuming that the Navarro comments are not "clarified" at some future date. We are waiting now for the new Treasury Secretary Mnuchin to be installed and comment on the  official forex policy for the marketplace. For now, the USD is at risk to fall even lower. 

Key U.K. Brexit Parliamentary Vote The GBP remained surprisingly soft in the latest week despite generally positve economic reports and a key Parliamentary victory by U.K. PM May on Wednesday in the House of Commons by a vote of 498-114 moved legislation ahead that would give her the power to set the data of when to invoke EU Article 50 to start the exit process of the U.K. from Europe. The U./K. Parliament will have another key Brexit vote this coming Wednesday.


 

WEEKLY Forex Economic Calendar:
6 Feb Mon
No Major Data 7 Feb Tue
03:30 AU- Reserve Bank Of Australia Meeting
13:30 US- Trade
8 Feb Wed
00:00 GB- EU Mebership Vote
15:30 US- EIA Crude
18:00 US-10-yr Auction
9 Feb Thu
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
18:00 US-30-yr Auction
3 Feb Fri
09:30 GB- Output/Trade
13:30 CA- Employment
15:00 US- Univ of Mich Survey (prelim)

Be sure to refer daily Global-View to see the continuously UPDATED Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

John M. Bland co-founder www.global-view.com

 

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 16 Oct
01:30 CN- CPI
21:45 NZ- CPI
Tue 17 Oct
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
09:00 EZ- Final HICP
Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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