Tuesday February 14, 2017 - 11:34:51 GMT
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The major focus today is on the Senate testimony by Fed Chair Yellen on the economy and monetary policy. This trestimony can have a profound impact on the markets as traders will be looking for any hints about the future course of monetary policy. While the the current Fed would like to feel that it is very transparent, in fact its policies are a muddle with the various mouths at the central bank sending many signals. This causes confusion and the markets don't like uncertainty. I would not be surprised to see extreme market volatility again today while Yellen is speaking.
Bottom-line, I expect the her to reiterate that the March FOMC is a "live" meeting. All meetings are "live". I also to stick to the February FOMC party line about gradual removal of accommodation meaning that a June rate hike is likely. A signal for a March hike would be a surprise and could impact the markets profoundly.
The EURUSD is slightly above late Monday levels. Today's HOD has been 1.0634 and its LOD 1.0585. Expect stops to be resting just beyond these limits today. Local resistance is at 1.0620. Support is 1.0612, then 1.0606. Use +/- 1.0600 to set the market's tone.
The GBPUSD took a tumble mid-morning in London after U.K. inflation data (CPI, RPI, PPI) were generally softer than expected. The GBPUSD HOD bas been 1.2549. Its LOD is 1.2442. The EURGBP is up on the day, due to the GBPUSD weakness. Flows in and out of the EURGBP cross can have a significant impact on the value of EURUSD and distort the EURUSD's tone.
Tune in frequently to the GVI Forum for updated trading insights as the session unfolds.
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