Wednesday February 15, 2017 - 10:04:43 GMT
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Forex Trading Ideas For Wednesday 15 February 2017
Trading Ideas for 15 Feb 2017
WEEKLY Forex Economic Calendar:
15 Feb Wed
09:30 GB- Employment
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- CPI
14:15 US- Industrial Production
15:00 US- Yellen Testimony
15:30 US- EIA Crude
16 Feb Thu
03:00 AU- Employment
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
17 Feb Fri
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
- U.K. Employment data disappointed the markets as it missed street estimates. Jobless data improved, but average earnings missed. Yesterday, U.K. CPI data missed as well. Aside from the U.S., U.K. forex markets are the most sensitive to economic data. Today sees U.S. CPI, Retail Sales and the second round of Fed Chair Yellen's testimony.
- On Tuesday, There were no major surprises from Chair Yellen's testimony. As expected, she left the door open to a possible rate hike at the March meeting. She said that the Fed would consider rate hikes at future meetings. Markets took the tone of her comments to be a bit more hawkish than anticipated.
- As for trading, I feel the implications are that the February employment data due in early March could tip the scale either way on the March 15 Fed policy decision. She is keeping all options open for that meeting. One argument in favor of a March hike is that it would keep the Fed on track for three rate hikes this year. The central bank has recently fallen into a pattern of rate changes at the Four Fed meetings that fall just before the end of each quarter.
- Fed Funds futures odds for a March Fed rate hike are now 36% (30%). Markets now place the odds for a single rate hike by June at 110% (104%).
Equities In Risk-On Posture Ahead Of Yellen and Data Today
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