Thursday February 16, 2017 - 09:44:20 GMT
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Forex Trading Ideas For Thursday 16 February 2017
Trading Ideas for 16 Feb 2017
WEEKLY Forex Economic Calendar:
16 Feb Thu
03:00 AU- Employment
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
17 Feb Fri
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
- The decline in the USD has ben relentless since earl morning trade Wednesday. This activity illustrates the risk of trading with "conventional wisdom". Hawkish Yellen comments Tuesday were followed up by strong U.S. data Wednesday causing the currency to become heavily overbought.
- On Wedbesday, There were no surprises in Chair Yellen's testimony. She did not retreat from the bullish tone of her Tuesday comments. On Tuesday she opened the door wide for a possible rate hike at the March 15 meeting. She also said that the Fed would consider rate hikes at future meetings. Over the day, several Fed officials spoke in favor of ealy rate hikes.
- From a trading perspective, I continue to feel the implications are that the February employment data due in early March could tip the scale either way on the March 15 Fed policy decision. She is keeping all options open for that meeting. One argument in favor of a March hike is that it would solidify the Fed track for three rate hikes this year.
- Fed Funds futures odds for a March Fed rate hike are now 44% (36%). Markets now place the odds for rate hikes by June at 122% (110%). That is 100% for one hike (March?) plus 22% for a second move.
USD Decline Has Been Relentless. Mild Risk Off In European Bourses
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