Tuesday February 21, 2017 - 09:56:43 GMT
Share This Story
Global-View - www.global-view.com
Forex Trading Ideas For Tuesday 21 January 2017
Trading Ideas for 21 Feb 2017
WEEKLY Forex Economic Calendar:
21 Feb Tue
All Day flash PMIs
22 Feb Wed
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
09:30 GB- GDP
10:00 EZ- Final HICP
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
19:00 US- Fed Policy Minutes
20:30 US- API Crude
23 Feb Thu
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- flash Service PMI
24 Feb Fri
13:30 CA- CPI
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final Univ of Mich Survey
- Monday was subdued trading session with no major data slated and U.S. markets closed for the President' Day holiday. Over the day, two Fed speakers reinforced the view that the central bank is mullimg a rate hike on March 15.
- Key data are due over the week. The first round of PMI releases (flash) today were mostly higher than expected. On Wednesday, the German IFO Survey is due. These tend to be important items for analysts but not as much so for the markets in terms of price fluctuations.
- As for where the forex markets are headed, my focus is on market sentiment vis-a-vis economic growth in the U.S. The Fed appears to be embarking on a policy "normalization" path starting with a rate hike on March 15. Market odds on a hike are only 38%. Traders simply don't believe the Fed has the courage to go through with a rate hike. For Yellen to have any future credibility she should hike rates. I'm not sure what this Fed is made of. A 25bp rate hike will not decimate the economy. We will see.
- I feel that equity markets are currently of two minds about U.S. economic growth. They are hopeful that the new U.S. administration will be able to come through with its promises, primarily a significant tax cut. However, the establishment opposition (in both parties) are doing all they can to sabotage and obstruct major reform. They have a lot to lose. In addition to tax reform, Obamacare is a quagmire. It is a financial disaster that is going to be nearly impossible to fix in the short run. Whether it all can be fixed will depend on how well Trump delegates power and on how strong his Cabinet will be.
- So the equity markets are of two minds. One is optimistic about growth and the second is pessimistic that major change will sabotaged by the establishment. The USD will be suported by positive prospects for growth and undermined by fears of no change.
- As of late Friday Fed Funds futures odds for a March Fed rate hike were 38% (44%). Markets now place the odds for rate hikes by June at 112% (12%). That is 100% for one hike (March?) plus 12% for a second move.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."