Wednesday February 22, 2017 - 10:09:44 GMT
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Forex Trading Ideas For Wednesday 22 February 2017
Trading Ideas for 22 Feb 2017
WEEKLY Forex Economic Calendar:
22 Feb Wed
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
09:30 GB- GDP
10:00 EZ- Final HICP
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
19:00 US- Fed Policy Minutes
20:30 US- API Crude
23 Feb Thu
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- flash Service PMI
24 Feb Fri
13:30 CA- CPI
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final Univ of Mich Survey
- Trading Wednesday has gotten off to an active start. There has been a very significant change to market sentiment recently with investors now focusing on key leadership elections in Europe over the rest of the year. Many worry about the risk swing to right as has been seen in the U.K. (Brexit) and U.S. (Trump). Such could be a challenge to the status quo in the EU. These concerns are being manifested in a weaker EUR and demand for soveriegn debt (flight-to-safety).
- Key data are still due. The latest German IFO Survey has beaten expectations, while revisions to U.K. 4Q16 GDP data were mixed. Later today features U.S. Existing Homes Sales and the latest FOMC Minutes.
- U.S. equity markets are of two minds. One is optimistic about growth and the second is pessimistic that major change will sabotaged by the establishment. The USD will be supported by positive prospects for growth and undermined by fears of no change.
- As for the U.S. Fed, speakers have been reinforcing (indirectly) the view that the central bank is mullimg a rate hike on March 15. The Fed appears to be embarking on a policy "normalization" path starting with a rate hike on March 15. Traders are wondering if the Fed has the courage to go through with a rate hike. For Yellen to have any future credibility she should hike rates.
- Fed Funds futures odds for a March Fed rate hike are 38% (38%). Markets now place the odds for rate hikes by June at 118% (112%). That is 100% for one hike (March?) plus 18% for a second move.
Mostly Risk-Off Posture Early In Europe on 22 Feb 2017
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