Wednesday February 22, 2017 - 20:36:33 GMT
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Forex Trading Ideas For Thursday 23 February 2017
Pre-Open Trading Ideas for 23 Feb 2017
WEEKLY Forex Economic Calendar:
23 Feb Thu
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- flash Service PMI
24 Feb Fri
13:30 CA- CPI
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final Univ of Mich Survey
- Trading Wednesday got off to an active start. Early a significant change to market sentiment saw investors focusing on the risk from key leadership elections in Europe over the rest of the year. Many worry about the possibility of a swing to right as has been seen in the U.K. (Brexit) and U.S. (Trump). Such could be a challenge to the status quo in the EU. These concerns are being manifested in a weaker EUR and demand for soveriegn debt (flight-to-safety).
- During the day, moderate French Presidential candidate Bayrou anounced that he will not be running and said he is backing Macron. The news gave the EURUSD a lift as it was thought the decicion boosts Macron's chances in the first round vote. Markets have been worried about a posible long-shot Right-wing candidate Le Pen victory.
- U.S. equity markets are of two minds. One is optimistic about growth and the second is pessimistic that major change might be sabotaged by the establishment. The USD will be supported by positive prospects for growth and undermined by fears of no change.
- As for the U.S. Fed, the latest Fed Minutes left open the RISK of a Rate hike as early as the March 15 FOMC ("very soon"). No clear signal was sent. It appeared to me they want to hike in March. Nevertheless no clear signal was sent. They hinted that the February employment data on March 10 could be decisive.
- The Fed appears to be hoping to embark on a policy "normalization" path soon Traders still are wondering if the Fed has the courage to go through with a rate hike. For Yellen to have any future credibility, she should hike rates soon.
- Fed Funds futures odds for a March Fed rate hike are 34% (38%). Markets now place the odds for rate hikes by June at 116% (118%). That is 100% for one hike (March?) plus 18% for a second move, or possibly something in-between.
Mixed Markets Late on 22 Feb 2017 After Mixed Fed Minutes
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