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Tuesday November 8, 2005 - 11:59:16 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 08-11-05.... 1150 GMT

Euro @ 1.1722/5....Holding Shorts
---------------------------------
R: 1.1745-65 / 1.1774-85 / 1.1815
S: 1.1710 / 1.1688
The Euro has remained above 1.1710 and below 1.1750 so far since the morning. As long as it remains below 1.1765 today, we may look for a fall below 1.1700 and 1.1688 over today-tomorrow. In case of a rise above 1.1765, we may see a test of further Resistance at 1.1775-85 and maybe even a rise to 1.1815.

Holding:
EUR 20K Short at 1.1790, SL 1.1820, TP 1.1560
EUR 20K Short at 1.1745, SL 1.1799 (down from 1.1820), TP 1.1610


$-Yen @ 117.80/4....Exiting Long to be Square
---------------------------------------------
R: 118.04 / 118.35-41
S: 117.63-46 / 117.10
The market has been consolidating between 117.50-118.00 since yesterday. This is a precursor to a big move to unfold, either in the US session today, or early in the Asian hours tomorrow morning. The market can either rise towards 118.50 or fall towards 116.90-80.

Exit Trade:
Exit at current level $25K Long entered at 118.00.


Euro-Yen @ 138.10/5....Bearish now, but careful
------------------------------------------------
R: 138.41 / 138.68-78 / 138.90-97
S: 138.10-05 / 137.95-89
Huge fall in the Cross, driven by the fall in EUR-USD. We are now "system bearish". HOWEVER, the Cross has already moved down to the extent of its normal daily amplitude today AND has Support in the 137.95-89 region as well. As such, we would not advise a Short at the current level. In fact, an intra-day bounce towards 138.41-65 cannot be ruled out. THAT might be a better level to Sell. In case the Cross simply slices through the 137.95-89 Support, we would be more comfortable buying near 137.15-25 region, which is the Trend Support, coming up from the 130.62 Low in June-05.




$-Swiss @ 1.3148/55....Bullish, buy dips
-------------------------------------------------
R: 1.3175-89 / 1.3203 / 1.3266
S: 1.3105-3095 / 1.3057 / 1.3033-29
Dollar-Swiss has finally broken out on the upside into purely bullish region. The Big Bad Bear SHS in EUR-USD has its mirror image in the Big Bull SHS in USD-CHF, targeting 1.42-45 over the coming months. 1.35 would be an intermediate target.

For today, the market has already moved up almost to its full potential and it would be better to buy on dip (if possible) or on a move past the day's projected Max High near 1.3189. Good intra-day Support now at 1.3095-85

Order:
Buy $25K at 1.3119, SL 1.3070, TP open


Cable @ 1.7347/52....Sell rally
--------------------------------
R: 1.7373 / 1.7419 / 1.7450-68
S: 1.7327 / 1.7286 / 1.7215
The Cable has been finding minor supports at 1.7327 today and shows some inclination to bounce back. If it does, we may see 1.7415-20 later today, but finds sellers there. A rise above 1.7420, if seen, may see it rise to 1.7450 also. A failure to rise past 1.7420 may see it fall back towards 1.7300.

Order:
Sell Cable 15K at 1.7415, SL 1.7455, TP Open.




Aussie @ 0.7302/7.....Holding Shorts
----------------------------------------
R: 0.7320-22 / 0.7338-45 / 0.7386
S: 0.7286-72 / 0.7224
The Aussie has recovered to 0.7317 so far today, but will need to cross over the resistances at 0.7338-45 to sustain its rise, in which case it may test 0.7375. While below 0.7345 however, the charts look bearish and a we may look for a fall towards 0.7240-20 over the course of the week.

Holding:
AUD Short 30K at 0.7386, TSL 0.7350 (down from 0.7355), TP 0.7240.

AUD Short 30K at 0.7297, SL 0.7337 (up from 0.7331), TP 0.7240




Happy Trading!



 

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