Wednesday March 1, 2017 - 19:50:27 GMT
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Forex Trading Ideas For Thursday 2, 2017
Trading Ideas for 2 Mar 2017
WEEKLY Forex Economic Calendar:
2 Mar Thu
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
23:30 JP- CPI
3 Mar Fri
All-Day SVC PMIs
- Over the day Wednesday, markets continued to react positively to the Trump policy speech late Tuesday. Generally, the President was viewed as more "presidential" than beforehand. As expected, the speech was short on specfics. They will appear in his upcoming budget proposal.
- I have been writing for well over a month that I felt the Fed would like to raise the Fed funds rate on March 15, conditions permitting. The last couple of weeks has seen the Fed chorus all singing the same tune in favor of an early policy tightening. I don't think this is coincidence. I think it is a policy signal.
- Post-Trump and recent Fedspeak, Fed Funds futures odds on a March 15 rate hike spiked higher again on Wednseday to 80% from 54% on Tuesday's close. Markets now place the odds for rate hike(s) by June at 140% (124%). Odds get a little complex with three meetings and two rate changes being considered. Suffice it to say that markets are well on their way to pricing in two rate hikes by mid-year.
- A growing focus this week is a speech on the economic outlook Friday by Fed Chair Yellen in Chicago at 13:00 GMT. With the markets already having virtually priced in a rate hike, she will have to walk a narrow path so as not to mislead the markets if a rate hike is tentatively planned.
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