Wednesday November 9, 2005 - 11:43:28 GMT
Share This Story
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com
Euro - Crude: An interesting pattern
“The first rule is not to lose. The second rule is not to forget the first rule.”
Do I hear 55…do I hear 52…do I hear…65…70…Is it supply, demand, or sentiment? It’s probably a bit of all three.
“Most investors still cling to the notion that China and India will consume so much oil that prices will eventually be very high and, despite the recent setbacks, still hold massive positions in energy stocks. I believe that the energy sector will be in a lot of trouble next year. The irrationally high prices this year have triggered massive responses in producer and consumer behavior. The demand for oil in 2006 would surprise on the downside even if prices fall substantially and the global economy turns out to be robust,” writes Morgan’s Andy Xie. [Our emphasis]
The peak oil crowd clings tightly to their theory…but for some odd reason, maybe the dollar is involved in this game some way. Maybe it is that interest rate thing.
We did notice an interesting looking relationship (maybe completely coincidental) when playing with our charting package. The blue line is the EUR/USD weekly and the black line is crude oil futures weekly. The relationship is lagged approximately 9-months…i.e. EUR/USD peaked 9-months earlier than crude peaked.
Crude vs. euro lagged
Black Swan Capital
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."