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Wednesday November 9, 2005 - 12:49:01 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 09-11-05 ... 1235 GMT


Euro @ 1.1751/4....Holding Short
--------------------------------
R: 1.1781-93 / 1.1816
S: 1.1733-23-10 / 1.1683
The Euro has remained below 1.1795 so far today and has chances now of dipping further towards 1.1733-10. But it might not fall below 1.1710 and might remain ranged between 1.1710-81 instead till tomorrow. Thereafter, there would be about 60% chances of an eventual fall past 1.1710 and 1.1680 and a 40% chance of a rally towards 1.1800+.

Holding:
EUR 20K Short at 1.1790, SL 1.1800 (down from 1.1815), TP 1.1610.


$-Yen @ 117.40/4....Still bullish? Watch 117.21-09
--------------------------------------------------
R: 117.66-74 / 117.99
S: 117.21-09 / 116.96
The Dollar has been finding Support at 117.09-21 so far after its fall from 118.00 today. Immediate Resistance now at 117.66-74. Should the market Close above this today, then further upside towards 118.26 may be seen, possibly by tomorrow. On the other hand, a Day Close below 117.09 might be very bearish, targeting 116.00

Order:
Sell $25K at 117.00, SL 117.35, TP 116.20


Euro-Yen @ 137.96/138.01....Bearish bias till 137.00
------------------------------------------------
R: 138.32-34 / 138.70
S: 137.79 / 137.42 / 137.26-14
The Cross has been trading below 138.32-34 through the day and maintains its bearish bias. A break below 137.79 could take the Cross down towards 137.46-26. Note that the 137.00-25 region represents Trend Support coming up from the 130.60 Low of 23-June.

Coming back to the here and now, in case the Cross remains above 137.85-75 AND crosses the 138.34 Resistance, it may move up to test 138.70. Overall, however, the downside looks more probable than the upside.




$-Swiss @ 1.3127/32...Holding Long
----------------------------------
R: 1.3140 / 1.3161-75 / 1.3221
S: 1.3095-85 / 1.3030
The Dollar has built good Support in the the 1.3120-3085 region. We may expect the market to remain above this through today. Immediate Resistance is at 1.3140. The next one is at 1.3175. A rise past 1.3175 would be needed to provide a rise towards 1.3250 and higher tomorrow.

NOTE that the immediate Resistance at 1.3140 is a trendline connecting the Highs of July and Aug 2004 with the Highs of July 2005 on the Weekly Candles. As such, the market may take some time to break through on the upside.

Holding:
$25K Long at 1.3119, SL 1.3090 (up from 1.3079), TP 1.3219


Cable @ 1.7391/6....Bearish bias
-------------------------------
R: 1.7400-15 / 1.7453
S: 1.7362 / 1.7327 / 1.7300 / 1.7272
The Cable has remained below 1.7450-65 and fallen below its crucial supports at 1.7400. Shows fresh signs of bearishness. It may now fall to 1.7327 as the recovery seen yesterday failed to provide a rise. An immediate bounce back may find strong resistance at 1.7400-15, which may keep the pair bearish biased.

No trades, however, because we need to wait for the Euro and the Swissy to come good.




Aussie @ 0.7332/37....Sideways between 0.7300-65
-------------------------------------------------
R: 0.7353 / 0.7379-88 / 0.7423-44
S: 0.7300-0.7291 / 0.7252
The Aussie has been unable to rise above 0.7355-60 resistance from the last few hours and is seen dipping a bit now. There exists some chance of falling back to 0.7300, where it finds some supports. Basically, the market may be ranged between 0.7300-7365 for some time. No trades




Happy Trading!


 

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Tue 12 Dec
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 GB- ZEW Survey
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00:30 AU- Employment
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15:30 US- EIA Crude
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
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