Thursday March 9, 2017 - 09:43:32 GMT
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Forex Trading Ideas For Thursday 9 March 2017
Trading Ideas for 9 Mar 2017
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WEEKLY Forex Economic Calendar:
9 Mar Thu
12:45 EZ- ECB
13:30 US- Weekly Jobs
10 Mar Fri
09:30 GB- Output/Trade
13:30 CA/US- Employment
- The top event today is the ECB policy decision. Most in the markets feel that the over-accomodative monetary policy of the central bank is well past its "best by:" date. Traders are hoping to hear something from President Draghi suggesing that it will start soon to consider "tapering off" its asset purchases. A key consideration today will be the bank's latest economic forecasts. This meeting is probably too early for a definitive statement by the ECB Council, but it could be a volatile session.
- Forex Markets have priced in several Fed rate hikes this year and this outlook has adversely impacted U.S. equities and the price of bonds (= higher yields) and given the USD a bid. Odds in favor of a rate hike at the March 15 FOMC are virtually a lock (100%). Including the March FOMC, something shy of three rate hikes have been priced in for between now and year end. Warning. Experience suggests that it is best to deal with rate hikes one at a time.
- Friday sees February U.S. and Canadian Employment data. It is highly improbable, but an unexpectedly weak U.S. report theoretically could derail the March Fed rate hike. I would not be betting on this.
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