Thursday March 9, 2017 - 19:38:42 GMT
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Forex Trading Ideas For Friday 10 March 2017
Trading Ideas for 10 Mar 2017
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WEEKLY Forex Economic Calendar:
10 Mar Fri
09:30 GB- Output/Trade
13:30 CA/US- Employment
14 Mar Tue
13:30 US- PPI
15 Mar Wed
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- CPI
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Decision
16 Mar Thu
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
12:00 GB- BOE Decision
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
17 Mar Fri
14:15 US- Industrial Production
15:00 US- Univ of Mich (prelim)
- Friday sees U.S. and Canadian employment data for February. Street estimates are for an increase in jobs of 185K in the month vs. 227K in January. Advance indicators, which cannot always be trusted, are pointing in the direction of a very strong report. Soloid data would mainly go to reinforce the policy tightening path on which the Fed has already embarked.
- Financial markets have priced in several Fed rate hikes this year and this outlook has adversely impacted U.S. equities and the price of bonds (= higher yields). The prospect higher interest rates has also given the USD a bid. Odds in favor of a rate hike at the March 15 FOMC are virtually a lock (100%). Including the March FOMC, something shy of three rate hikes have been priced in for between now and year end. Warning. Experience suggests that it is best to deal with rate hikes one at a time.
- Forex Markets have priced in several Fed rate hikes this year and this outlook has adversely impacted U.S. equities and the price of bonds (= higher yields) and given the USD a bid. Odds in favor of a rate hike at the March 15 FOMC are virtually a lock (100%). Including the March FOMC, something shy of three rate hikes have been priced in for between now and year end. Warning. Experience suggests that it is best to deal with rate hikes one at a time.
- It is highly improbable, but an unexpectedly weak U.S. report theoretically could derail the March Fed rate hike. I would not be betting on this.
- The ECB policy announcement proved to be a key event on Thursday. While the council did not make any changes to policy, analysts detected a shift in tone by the central bank. The Bank was less concerned that the Eurozone economy might begin to slip again. Generally, the policy statement and press conference comments were notable because several dovish references were removed. Odds are that the ECB are in the early stages of planning to curtail its QE program. Odds are this will not happen until 2018, but markets will start to price in a change as soon as they begin to sense a shift in policy is at hand.
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