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Wednesday November 9, 2005 - 15:03:17 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• USD stays in narrow ranges overnight.
• EUR-USD downside still favoured overall – USD-JPY looks more subdued.
• AUD receives modest boost from data.

Market Outlook

A fairly quiet night for the majors, with EUR-USD trading close to the levels seen late yesterday and USD-JPY for the most part staying below 117.50 (apart from a brief upward spike late in the European morning). A poor earnings outlook yesterday from US high-end house builder Toll Brothers turned a few heads, as the fortunes of the housing market will be a key factor determining both consumer spending and Fed policy. Bad news on housing will need to be repeated elsewhere before this becomes a major issue for the USD, although it does offer an initial warning sign.

While the USD failed to advance any further yesterday, the short-term outlook remains positive after the price action seen on EUR-USD this week. The one possible exception is USDJPY,where the move below 117.50 raises a few questions about short-tem momentum loss. Above 118.05 would suggest the likelihood of a fresh test higher, but key Fibonacci resistance at 118.41 (50% retracement of the 2002 to 2005 downmove from 135.14 to 101.68) is the main barrier. On EURUSD, 1.1750 needs to break to raise the likelihood of a test of yesterday’s lows just above 1.17, while further short-tern recovery attempts will be generated on moves above 1.1795 and 1.1830. A close back above the 1.1865-1.1900 area is required to eradicate current downside risk. Downside remains favoured overall in the short-term. 1.1590 is the initial target. German trade data revealed another strong performance in
exports, which have now risen by 10% since April alone.

Better news for the AUD overnight, with both consumer sentiment and housing finance data coming in stronger than expected. The big rise in consumer sentiment (+9.0%) came after very sharp losses in the previous couple of months totalling 14.9% and remains down 11.6% y/y. However, the\ numbers provide some relief from the recent spate of subdued news and tonight’s labour market data will go some way in determining whether this can carry through any further. However, strong numbers will be required to insulate the AUD if broad USD strength continues in the days ahead. Above 0.7360 is required to trigger a further recovery attempt up towards 0.7400, while below 0.7325 will be a negative development. Downside is still favoured overall – initial risk to 0.7225.

Day Ahead
Today’s schedule is fairly light. There are a number of central bank speakers, although it is not clear that any of them will touch upon subjects that will influence policy sentiment or FX. Australian and NZ labour market data will carry some market moving potential this evening.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

SE Riksbank’s Persson on policy 09.00
US Fed’s Santomero spks on China 11.00
CA BoC’s Dodge on pensions 12.35
US Fed’s Poole on the current account 16.00
NZ Unemployment rate (Q3) 16.45 3.7%
NZ Employment (Q3) q/q 16.45 +0.3%
AU Employment (Oct) 19.30 +15k
AU Unemployment rate (Oct) 19.30 5.1%
JP Machinery orders core (Sep) m/m 00.00 -6.2%

Latest data Actual Consensus*
US ABC consumer conf (w/e Nov 6) -19 -21 last
AU Consumer sentiment (Nov) +9.0% -1.6% last
JP M2 plus CDs (Oct) y/y +2.0% +2.1%
AU Housing finance (Sep) m/m +4.6% +2.0%
DE Trade balance (Sep) €15.0bn €13.0bn
DE Exports (Sep) m/m +2.5% +2.4% last
DE Current account (Sep) €7.4bn €5.6bn
DE WPI (Oct) y/y +2.7% +3.6%
SE AMS unemployment rate (Oct) 5.1% 5.0%
GB Global trade balance (Sep) -£5.4bn -£5.3bn
GB Non-EU trade balance (Sep) -£3.1bn -£2.8bn
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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